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Copper Fundamental Forecast – August 26, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Aug 25, 2016, 10:46 UTC

Copper is trading in the green at 2.085 at the very bottom of its recent trading range seeing little support from moves by the PBOC and better than

Copper Fundamental Forecast – August 26, 2016

Copper is trading in the green at 2.085 at the very bottom of its recent trading range seeing little support from moves by the PBOC and better than expected new homes data in the US.  Prices traded nearer the session low and hit a two-month low today. The copper bears have the firm overall near-term technical advantage. Prices are in an accelerating six-week-old downtrend on the daily bar chart. Copper bulls’ next upside breakout objective is pushing and closing prices above solid technical resistance at the 220.00 cents. The next downside price breakout objective for the bears is closing prices below solid technical support at the June low of 203.15 cents.

The huge inventory rise in Asian warehouses suggests China is exporting its surplus and we’ve some pretty strong copper export numbers,” said Societe Generale analyst Robin Bhar.

“A surge in mine supply in the first half of the year has translated into excess refined metal. Exports of unwrought copper and copper products from China jumped to 75,022 tonnes in July, more than a fivefold rise from the same month last year and analysts interpreted it as a sign of weak local demand.

The rise in mine supply in the first half of the year came mostly from Peru, much of it ending up in China to be processed into refined metal by local smelters.

Chinese imports of copper ores and concentrates from Peru nearly doubled to more 2.43 million tonnes in the seven months to July.

“All that refined metal is leaving China because it can’t find a home,” one copper trader said, adding that activity was subdued ahead of a speech from Fed Chair Janet Yellen on Friday, which may yield clues to the timing of US interest rate rises.

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Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

August 26, 2016

Country Name Volatility Previous
JPY Tokyo CPI ex Food, Energy (YoY) 2 0.3
JPY Tokyo CPI ex Fresh Food (YoY) 2 -0.4
JPY Tokyo Consumer Price Index (YoY) 2 -0.4
JPY National CPI Ex-Fresh Food (YoY) 2 -0.5
JPY National CPI Ex Food, Energy (YoY) 2 0.4
JPY National Consumer Price Index 2 -0.4
EUR Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey 2 10
GBP GDP (YoY) 2 2.2
GBP GDP (QoQ) 2 0.6
USD GDP Annualized 2 1.2
USD GDP Price Index 2 2.2
USD Personal Consumption (QoQ) 2 1.9
USD Core Personal Consumption (QoQ) 2 1.7
USD Markit PMI Composite 2
USD Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count 2

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country Auction

Aug 24 10:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Aug 24 10:30 Germany Eur 4bn 0% Oct 2021 Bobl

Aug 24 18:00 US Holds 2yr FRN auction & 5yr note auction

Aug 25 18:00 US Holds 7yr note auction

Aug 26 10:10 Italy Holds zero coupon

 

 

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