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Copper Fundamental Forecast – February 15, 2016

By:
Barry Norman
Published: Feb 12, 2016, 11:32 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Copper added 18 points to trade at 2.025 recovering from Thursday’s rout. Copper held near a two-week low on concern that

Copper Fundamental Forecast – February 15, 2016

Copper  Friday bns
Analysis and Recommendations:

Copper added 18 points to trade at 2.025 recovering from Thursday’s rout. Copper held near a two-week low on concern that exports from Freeport-McMoRan’s Indonesia mine set to resume shipments from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, the world’s second-largest for the commodity, will add to an oversupply. Most other industrial metals climbed.

The metal has dropped 20% in the past year as China’s economic slowdown cut demand, prompting some mining companies to shutter unprofitable production. New supply due this year will largely offset the impact of supply cuts, Morgan Stanley said in a report Tuesday. It expects mine output to expand 3% this year to 19.9 million tons.

“News that Freeport-McMoRan is set to resume shipping from its Grasberg mine in Indonesia acted as a dampener on copper prices,” Sucden Financial said in an e-mailed report. “The ramping up of operations at world’s second-largest mine by capacity will likely add to the supply glut.”

Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of subdued demand at domestic spot market, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.

However, firm global trend where most industrial metals rose as the dollar retreated to a three-month low amid prospects for a delay in the tightening of US monetary policy, restricted the fall, they said.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each asset we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which covers the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins. Daily we share any new events, forecasts or analysis that affect the current day. To achieve a full accurate understanding it is important that you study all of our data and analysis as a whole.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
  China – Lunar New Year
  AUD RBA Governor Stevens Speaks        
  AUD Home Loans (MoM) (Dec) 2.6% 3.0% 1.9%
  EUR German CPI (MoM) (Jan) -0.8% -0.8% -0.8%  
  EUR German GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%  
  EUR German GDP (YoY) (Q4) 2.1% 2.3% 1.7%
  EUR EU Finance Ministers Meeting        
  EUR GDP (YoY) (Q4) 1.5% 1.5% 1.6%  
  EUR GDP (QoQ) (Q4) 0.3% 0.3% 0.3%  
  EUR Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec) -1.0% 0.3% -0.5%
  USD Core Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   0.1% -0.1%  
  USD Export Price Index (MoM) (Jan)   -0.9% -1.1%  
  USD Import Price Index (MoM) (Jan)   -1.4% -1.2%  
  USD Retail Sales (MoM) (Jan)   0.1% -0.1%

 

copper

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Cur. Event Actual Forecast Previous  
    United States – Presidents’ Day
    Canada – Family Day
  JPY GDP (QoQ) (Q4)   -0.3% 0.3%  
  JPY GDP (YoY) (Q4)   -1.2% 1.0%  
  CNY Exports (YoY) (Jan)   -1.9% -1.4%  
  CNY Imports (YoY) (Jan)   -0.8% -7.6%  
  CNY Trade Balance (Jan)   58.85B 60.09B  
  JPY Industrial Production (MoM) (Dec)     -1.4%  
  EUR Trade Balance (Dec)     23.6B

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time and Country

Feb 15 13:00 Norway Details of bond auction on Feb 17

Feb 17 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:05 Norway Holds bond auction

Feb 17 11:30 Germany Euro 5bn 0.5% Feb 2026 Bund

Feb 17 11:30 UK New Jul 2026 Gilt auction

Feb 18 10:30 Spain Holds bond auction

Feb 18 11:50 France Holds bond auction

Feb 18 17:20 Sweden Details of I/L auction on Feb 25

Feb 19 11:10 Italy Details of BTP€i/Zero-coupon auction

 

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