Copper Fundamental Forecast – July 27, 2016

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Updated: Jul 26, 2016, 08:14 UTC

Copper eased by 4 points after two days of price increases on strong housing data. Traders sold off at the top to book profits as copper remains at 2.21.

Copper Fundamental Forecast – July 27, 2016

Copper eased by 4 points after two days of price increases on strong housing data. Traders sold off at the top to book profits as copper remains at 2.21. This has been a concern for those looking for reasons to believe the metal’s price rally, which has dominated the first seven months of this year, will continue – copper is generally seen as the bellwether for metal pricing.

In a note this week, Barclays warned investors and miners not to wager too much on copper belatedly joining the party. Rather, a more robust demand scenario across metals is more likely toward 2019-2020, with any price upside for base and bulk metals to be driven by supply-side discipline or problems.

The sentiment around copper remains mixed in the beginning of this week. Copper prices were supported by the increase in the long positions by hedge funds. The profits are limited because of the market’s expectation of copper entering into a surplus this year. According to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s latest “Commitment of Traders” report, the net positions in copper flipped from short to long with a decline in the overall short positions by 16,549 contracts to net long positions of 2,400 contracts.

“Copper has been the worst-performing commodity YTD,” the bank said. “Looking ahead we see few reasons to get too excited, with the market set to record modest surpluses out to 2020.

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Wednesday, July 27, 2016

Country	Name	Volatility	Previous
AUD	Consumer Price Index (QoQ)	3	-0.2
AUD	RBA trimmed mean CPI (YoY)	3	1.7
AUD	Consumer Price Index (YoY)	3	1.3
AUD	RBA trimmed mean CPI (QoQ)	3	0.2
EUR	Gfk Consumer Confidence Survey	2	10.1
GBP	Gross Domestic Product (YoY)	2	2
GBP	Gross Domestic Product (QoQ)	2	0.4
USD	Durable Goods Orders	3	-2.2
USD	Durable Goods Orders Core	3	-0.3
USD	Pending Home Sales (YoY)	2	2.4
USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2	-3.7
USD	Fed’s Monetary Policy Statement	3
USD	Fed Interest Rate Decision	3	0.5