Copper Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

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Published: Sep 16, 2016, 11:46 UTC

Copper gave back a few points as the greenback rallied and traders booked profits after coppers gains this week. Overall traders have moved to the

Copper Fundamental Forecast – September 19, 2016

Copper gave back a few points as the greenback rallied and traders booked profits after coppers gains this week. Overall traders have moved to the sidelines ahead of the Bank of Japan and the FOMC decisions next week. Copper is trading at 2.155. Copper hit a three-week peak on Friday before retreating on a steadier dollar, and was still set to log its largest weekly rise in two months as China’s latest economic data suggests stronger growth in the next few months.

Encouraging signals from China’s housing market and indications of a revival in its factory sector over the summer have encouraged views that demand is quietly cranking up for the third quarter. Markets in China remained closed for the Mid-Autumn Festival, thinning trade flows.

Copper prices have been on the decline this summer, depressed by reports of oversupply and, worse, an exodus of inventory from top consumer China. Chinese demand also remains the chief determinant of prices, but even China — consumer of half the world’s supply — will struggle to overcome the surplus of supply next year. With little evidence to suggest Chinese demand is going pick up dramatically CRU are probably right that even if prices pick up a little in Q4 we are set for further weakness next year.

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