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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

By:
Barry Norman
Updated: Nov 24, 2015, 12:55 UTC

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil added 28 points as traders respond to comments from Saudi Arabia that it is prepared to listen and review OPEC

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 – Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 - Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 25, 2015 - Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil added 28 points as traders respond to comments from Saudi Arabia that it is prepared to listen and review OPEC members’ requests for lower quotas and production. Crude oil is trading at 42.03 while Brent Oil added 42 cents to 45.26. On Monday, U.S. crude oil futures expiring in January tumbled by about 3% to $40.67 (at the time of writing), down from previous close of $41.90 on Friday. The downward movement was driven by low demand for oil due to a strong dollar and persistent worries of an oil supply glut. Low demand from China has been stoking fears among market participants as almost all commodities, including oil, have been tumbling off late.

At the same time, many analysts believe that the crude oil inventories will continue to rise as oil economies continue to increase production in a bid to retain their market share. An official report said, “At 487.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of the year in at least the last 80 years.” Market participants believe the global supply glut will get worse next year and oil prices may continue to slide. Barnabas Chen, an OCBC commodities analyst, said, “A fall below $40 per barrel for West Texas Intermediate is very possible and real.”

Saudi Arabia’s official news agency quoted the Cabinet in a statement as saying it was ready to work with the members and nonmembers of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries to maintain the stability of the market.

“This could be just empty promises. If the market really believes the Saudi are ready to support prices, prices would be rebounding lot higher,” said Daniel Ang, an energy analyst at Phillip Futures.

Even if the cartel decides to halt production temporarily to jumpstart prices, the effect will be shortlived because it would encourage more U.S. shale producers to turn on the taps, said Mr. Ang.

Stubborn oversupply has been haunting the oil industry since last summer as the oil cartel has adopted a “no-cut” policy to defend its market share. The expected return of Iranian oil in the coming months is fueling fears that the global glut will be even more bloated.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

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This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (QoQ) (Q3)

0.3%

0.3%

0.3%

 

 

  EUR

 

German GDP (YoY) (Q3)

 1.8%

1.8%

1.8%

 

 

  EUR

 

ECB’s Costa Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  EUR

 

German Business Expectations (Nov)

 104.7

104.0

103.8

 

 

  EUR

 

German Current Assessment (Nov)

 113.4

112.4

112.6

 

 

  EUR

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index

 109.0

108.2

108.2

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Governor Stevens Speaks  

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

2.1%

1.5%

 

 

  USD

 

GDP Price Index (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

1.2%

1.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Goods Trade Balance (Oct)

 

-61.80B

-58.63B

 

 

  USD

 

S&P/CS HPI Composite – 20 n.s.a. (YoY)

 

5.1%

5.1%

 

 

  USD

 

CB Consumer Confidence (Nov)

 

99.5

97.6

   

 

crude oil

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Tuesday, November 25, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

  USD

 

API Weekly Crude Oil Stock

 

 

-0.482M

 

 

  JPY

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes

 

 

 

 

 

  AUD

 

Construction Work Done (QoQ) (Q3)

 

-2.1%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals

 

45.5K

44.5K

 

 

  AUD

 

RBA Assist Gov. Debelle Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

  USD

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)

 

0.3%

-0.3%

 

 

  USD

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.5%

-1.2%

 

 

  USD

 

Initial Jobless Claims

 

270K

271K

 

 

  USD

 

Personal Spending (MoM) (Oct)

 

0.3%

0.1%

 

 

  USD

 

Services PMI (Nov)  

 

55.0

54.8

 

 

  USD

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Nov)

 

93.1

93.1

 

 

  USD

 

New Home Sales (Oct)

 

500K

468K

 

 

  USD

 

Crude Oil Inventories

 

 

0.252M

 

 

  USD

 

Baker Hughes U.S. Rig Count

 

 

564

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 24 17:30 Italy Announces details of BTPs/CCTeu on 27 Nov

Nov 24 11:00 Holland Eur 1.0-2.0bn 0.25% Jul 2025 DSL

Nov 24 19:00 US 13bn 5-year note

Nov 25 11:03 Sweden Sek 4bn 1% Nov 2026 bond

Nov 25 11:10 Italy Auctions CTZ/BTPei

Nov 25 11:30 Germany Eur 3bn 1.0% Aug 2025 Bund

Nov 25 17:30 US Usd 35bn 2-year FRN

Nov 25 19:00 US Usd 29bn 7-year note

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

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