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Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

By:
Barry Norman

Analysis and Recommendations: Crude Oil is flat at 42.96 with the US on holiday while Brent Oil declined 35 points ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting.

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast

Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast
Crude & Brent Oil Fundamental Analysis – November 27, 2015 -Forecast
Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is flat at 42.96 with the US on holiday while Brent Oil declined 35 points ahead of next week’s OPEC meeting. Brent oil is at 45.82. Weekly data from the U.S. Department of Energy showed weekly crude oil stocks up 961,000 barrels versus a forecast rise of 1.2 million barrels, a slightly less bearish figure than expected. However gasoline stockpiles rose faster than expected and distillate inventories gained in the face of the forecast of a fall highlighting the scale of over-supply. Despite the gains in recent sessions Brent is still down 8.2 percent this month and more than 20 percent this year, and analysts said there was unlikely to be any substantial recovery in the coming days. A gain in the dollar, which rose to an eight month high against a basket of currencies, also weighed on prices of oil. OPEC is determined to keep pumping oil vigorously despite the resulting financial strain, even on the policy’s chief architect, Saudi Arabia, alarming weaker members who fear that prices may slump further towards $20.

Previously, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries led by Saudi Arabia, was vocal about not limiting production amid weakening global demand. Such actions further aggravate the price of the ‘black gold’ which lost more than 50 percent in value since 2014. The situation is expected to worsen when Iran pledged to start exporting oil again shortly after the economic sanctions by western countries have been lifted post nuclear agreement with the United States.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)

Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday.

Today’s economic releases:

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Thanksgiving Day

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (MoM) (Oct)

-963M

-937M

-1,222M

 

 

  NZD

 

Trade Balance (YoY) (Oct)

-3,240M

-3,370M

-3,200M

 

 

  AUD

 

Private New Capital Expenditure

-9.2%

-3.0%

-4.4%

   

  EUR

 

GfK German Consumer Climate

 

9.2

9.4

   

 

crude oil

Upcoming Economic Events that you should be monitoring:

Friday, November 27, 2015

Cur.

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

 

 

 

 

United States – Day following Thanksgiving – Early close at 13:30

  JPY

 

Household Spending (MoM) (Oct)

 

1.1%

-1.3%

 

 

  JPY

 

Household Spending (YoY) (Oct)

 

0.1%

-0.4%

 

 

  JPY

 

Jobs/applications ratio (Oct)

 

1.24

1.24

 

 

  JPY

 

National Core CPI (YoY) (Oct)

 

-0.1%

-0.1%

 

 

  JPY

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

-0.1%

-0.2%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) (Nov)

 

0.5%

0.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

Nationwide HPI (YoY) (Nov)

 

4.2%

3.9%

 

 

  GBP

 

Business Investment (QoQ) (Q3) 

 

1.5%

1.6%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (YoY) (Q3)  

 

2.3%

2.3%

 

 

  GBP

 

GDP (QoQ) (Q3)  

 

0.5%

0.5%

   

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Nov 26 11:03 Sweden Sek 5bn 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:03 Sweden 1.5% Nov 2023 bond exchange, 1% Nov 2026 bond exchange

Nov 27 11:10 Italy Auctions BTPs

Nov 27 N/A Spain Announces details of 03 Dec

Nov 30 11:03 Sweden Holds bond auction

Dec 01 11:30 UK 1.5% 2021 Gilt auction

Dec 02 16:30 Sweden Announces details of Bond on 11 Dec

Dec 03 10:30 Spain Auctions

Dec 03 10:50 France Auctions OATs

Dec 03 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

Dec 04 11:03 Sweden Holds I/L bond auction

 

 

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