Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 10, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 09, 2012 17:47 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size      
Add a comment
Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 93.77 slightly off of the earlier highs in the 94.00 price level but still up for the day.

Disappointing numbers from China today weakened the outlook for crude, as China showed a drop in Industrial Production and in Retail sales.

The overall eco data released today by China continues to be disappointing and under forecast raising doubts on China’s soft landing and their ability to meet their growth estimate of 7.4%

Even with two storm systems brewing in the gulf and a bit of geopolitical tensions with Syria, the weight of the Chinese data could not be overcome.

Trade balances were reported from the UK and Canada below expectations and the US showed an improvement.

It was a seesaw of events and interpretations today, as the overall negative data from China, gave hopes to monetary stimulus from the Asian exporters.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 9, 2012 actual v. forecast

Aug. 09

02:30

 

AUD

 

  

 

Employment Change 

14.0K

 

10.0K 

 

-28.3K 

    

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

  

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.2%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

    

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

 

1.7% 

 

2.2% 

 

  

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-2.9%

 

-2.5% 

 

-2.1% 

 

  

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

  

 

05:00

 

JPY

 

  

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

  

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.5% 

 

20.4% 

 

  

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.2%

 

9.8% 

 

9.5% 

 

  

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

  

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.1%

 

13.7% 

 

13.7% 

 

  

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

  

 

Trade Balance 

-10.1B

 

-8.6B 

 

-8.4B 

 

  

 

13:15

 

CAD

 

  

 

Housing Starts 

208.5K

 

213.0K 

 

222.1K 

    

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

  

 

Trade Balance 

-1.8B

 

-1.0B 

 

-0.9B 

    

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Trade Balance 

-42.9B

 

-47.5B 

 

-48.0B 

    

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

361K

 

370K 

 

367K 

    

 

13:30

 

USD

 

  

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3332K

 

3280K 

 

3279K 

    

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%
 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%
 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%
 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

 

 

 

 


Want to read more articles like this one?
Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.
 
We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.
  top stories  
About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

  View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles    
Share Your Thoughts: Post a Comment


Your email address will not be published.