Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 13, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 10, 2012 15:53 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 92.54 and continuing to fall. (see below Chinese data information). Data from around the world has been fairly negative. But the heaviest drag on crude oil has been the disappointing numbers from China, which indicate that a soft landing might have missed it goal. Regardless of the efforts made by the Chinese government, monthly numbers are worse than forecast.

But a quick look at global numbers, yesterday, both the UK and Canada had surprisingly bad trade balance numbers. Employment in Canada tumbled with unemployment skyrocketing. Most numbers from the EU have been disappointing and the US has not been so strong with mixed data.

This shows a global slowdown worse than expected and the OECD just the other day, reported an across the board slowdown.

Even though their continues to be hopes of central bank intervention with might prop up manufacturing and stimulate growth, the demand on crude oil and the downgrade in the forecast by the EIA yesterday, is weighing on prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Chinese Economic Data August 9 -10, 2012 actual v. forecast

CNY

Chinese CPI (YoY)

1.8%

1.7%

2.2%

CNY

Chinese PPI (YoY)

-2.9%

-2.5%

-2.1%

CNY

Chinese CPI (MoM)

0.1%

-0.1%

-0.6%

CNY

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY)

20.4%

20.5%

20.4%

CNY

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY)

9.2%

9.8%

9.5%

CNY

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY)

13.1%

13.7%

Economic Data for August 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 10

AUD

RBA Monetary Policy Statement

CNY

Chinese Trade Balance

25.10B

35.10B

31.70B

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.4%

-0.1%

JPY

BoJ Monthly Report

EUR

German CPI (MoM)

0.4%

0.4%

EUR

German CPI (YoY)

1.7%

1.7%

GBP

PPI Input (MoM)

1.3%

1.5%

-2.9%

GBP

PPI Input (YoY)

-2.4%

-1.5%

-3.0%

CAD

Employment Change

-30.4K

9.0K

7.3K

USD

Import Price Index (MoM)

-0.6%

0.1%

-2.4%

CAD

Unemployment Rate

7.3%

7.0%

7.2%

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 14	1:30	AUD	NAB Business Confidence	-3
	1:30	AUD	New Motor Vehicle Sales m/m	-0.6%
	5:30	EUR	French Prelim GDP q/q	0.0%
	6:00	EUR	German Prelim GDP q/q	0.5%
	6:45	EUR	French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q	0.1%
	7:15	CHF	PPI m/m	-0.3%
	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-19.6
	9:00	EUR	Flash GDP q/q	0.0%
	9:00	EUR	Industrial Production m/m	0.6%
	9:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-22.3
	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%
	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5%
	14:00	USD	Business Inventories m/m	0.3%
Aug 15	0:30	AUD	Westpac Consumer Sentiment	3.7%
	1:30	AUD	Wage Price Index q/q	0.9%
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	7.4
	13:00	USD	TIC Long-Term Purchases	55.0B
	13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.9%
	13:15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.4%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
Aug 16	1:00	AUD	MI Inflation Expectations	3.3%
	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations	-42.5
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y	2.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-12.9
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 13 09:10 Italy

Aug 13 09:10 Norway

Aug 13 09:30 Germany

Aug 14 09:10 Greece

Aug 14 09:10 Italy

Aug 14 09:30 Belgium

Aug 14 14:30 UK

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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