Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 14, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 13, 2012 15:00 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 93.48 slightly up as politics from the Middle East and the US are turning up geopolitical pressures.

Last week the EIA revised downward the demand for crude oil based on declining growth and production. This should have eased prices, but Israel has been ratcheting up rhetoric about Iran, though there have been no incidents.

This may be a political or an election ploy by Israel to get promises from the Presidential candidates during election season.

Last week it was reported that Iraq has now surpassed Iran in production, adding to global production supplies and abilities, which means that prices should be declining on additional supply.

Also Sudan and South Sudan seem to be finalizing negotiations of oil in the new country.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

Currency

Importance

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Aug. 13

00:50

JPY

GDP (QoQ)

0.3%

0.6%

1.3%

09:00

NOK

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM)

-1.40%

-1.00%

1.70%

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Previous
Aug 14	5:30	EUR	French Prelim GDP q/q	0.0%
	6:00	EUR	German Prelim GDP q/q	0.5%
	6:45	EUR	French Prelim Non-Farm Payrolls q/q	0.1%
	7:15	CHF	PPI m/m	-0.3%
	9:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-19.6
	9:00	EUR	Flash GDP q/q	0.0%
	9:00	EUR	Industrial Production m/m	0.6%
	9:00	EUR	ZEW Economic Sentiment	-22.3
	12:30	USD	Core Retail Sales m/m	-0.4%
	12:30	USD	PPI m/m	0.1%
	12:30	USD	Retail Sales m/m	-0.5%
	14:00	USD	Business Inventories m/m	0.3%
	12:30	USD	Core CPI m/m	0.2%
	12:30	USD	Empire State Manufacturing Index	7.4
	13:00	USD	TIC Long-Term Purchases	55.0B
	13:15	USD	Capacity Utilization Rate	78.9%
	13:15	USD	Industrial Production m/m	0.4%
	14:30	USD	Crude Oil Inventories	-3.7M
Aug 16	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations	-42.5
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y	2.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-12.9
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 14 09:10 Greece

Aug 14 09:10 Italy

Aug 14 09:30 Belgium

Aug 14 14:30 UK

Aug 15 09:10 Sweden

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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