Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 15, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil is trading at 93.40 adding 0.57 in late afternoon trading. Crude was down in the earlier hours on negative data from Japan and Europe. Although oil prices have been supported by the political turmoil between Israel and Iran, although without incident, Israel has turned up the rhetoric.
Eurozone eco data offered little support, but in the US session positive eco data out of the US including a strong retail sales report, helped buoy markets and gave crude oil a bump upwards.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to decline by 1.6 million barrels for the week ending on 10th August 2012.
U.S. oil supplies probably dropped to the lowest level in four months as tropical storms in the Gulf of Mexico reduced imports and the refinery utilization rate held near a five-year high, a Bloomberg survey showed.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 14, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
Time |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
Aug. 14 |
00:01 |
|
GBP |
|
|
RICS House Price Balance |
-24% |
|
-23% |
|
-22% |
|
|
|
00:50 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.3% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
02:30 |
|
AUD |
|
|
NAB Business Confidence |
4 |
|
|
|
-3 |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French CPI (MoM) |
-0.4% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
06:30 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French GDP (QoQ) |
0.0% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (QoQ) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.5% |
|
|
|
07:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German GDP (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
1.0% |
|
1.7% |
|
|
|
07:45 |
|
EUR |
|
|
French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) |
-0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
08:15 |
|
CHF |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
-0.3% |
|
-0.2% |
|
-0.3% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
Core CPI (YoY) |
2.3% |
|
2.1% |
|
2.1% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (YoY) |
2.6% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.4% |
|
|
|
09:30 |
|
GBP |
|
|
CPI (MoM) |
0.1% |
|
-0.1% |
|
-0.4% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
GDP (QoQ) |
-0.2% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
German ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-25.5 |
|
-19.3 |
|
-19.6 |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
Industrial Production (MoM) |
-0.6% |
|
-0.7% |
|
0.9% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
|
EUR |
|
|
ZEW Economic Sentiment |
-21.2 |
|
-19.1 |
|
-22.3 |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.4% |
|
-0.8% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (MoM) |
0.3% |
|
0.2% |
|
0.1% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Retail Sales (MoM) |
0.8% |
|
0.3% |
|
-0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
PPI (YoY) |
0.5% |
|
0.5% |
|
0.7% |
|
|
|
13:30 |
|
USD |
|
|
Core PPI (YoY) |
2.5% |
|
2.3% |
|
2.6% |
WEEKLY
-
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Previous |
|
Aug 15 |
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
|
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.2% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
7.4 |
||
|
13:00 |
USD |
55.0B |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
78.9% |
||
|
13:15 |
USD |
0.4% |
||
|
14:30 |
USD |
-3.7M |
||
|
Aug 16 |
9:00 |
CHF |
-42.5 |
|
|
9:00 |
EUR |
2.4% |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
361K |
||
|
12:30 |
USD |
0.76M |
||
|
14:00 |
USD |
-12.9 |
||
|
Aug 17 |
6:00 |
EUR |
-0.4% |
|
|
8:00 |
EUR |
10.9B |
||
|
13:55 |
USD |
72.3 |
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
Aug 15 09:10 Sweden
Aug 16 09:30 UK
Aug 16 15:00 US
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