Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

Posted August 15, 2012 15:34 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 93.53 adding a few cents after the EIA release showed a larger decrease than expected.

Today’s EIA inventory report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Crude oil prices slid slightly lower on Wednesday, ahead of the release of the weekly EIA oil inventories report that could clarify the levels of the US oil demand. Oil futures had risen on Tuesday, helped by US data showing a surge in consumer spending in July and eurozone growth data that came in line with expectations, traders said.

Concerns about supply shortfalls arising from forthcoming maintenance in the North Sea also lent support, as did worries that violence in Syria could impact the oil-producing Middle East region.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Currency

Event

actual

forecast

previous

Aug. 15

AUD

Westpac Consumer Sentiment

-2.50%

3.70%

AUD

Wage Price Index (QoQ)

1.0%

0.8%

0.9%

TRY

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate

8.20%

8.90%

9.00%

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus

1.6%

1.8%

1.5%

GBP

Claimant Count Change

-5.9K

6.0K

1.0K

GBP

MPC Meeting Minutes

USD

Core CPI (MoM)

0.1%

0.2%

USD

CPI (MoM)

0.0%

0.2%

0.0%

USD

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index

-5.8

6.5

7.4

USD

CPI (YoY)

1.4%

1.6%

1.7%

USD

Core CPI (YoY)

2.1%

2.2%

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions

9.3B

63.0B

55.9B

USD

Industrial Production (MoM)

0.6%

0.5%

0.1%

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Aug 16	9:00	CHF	ZEW Economic Expectations		-42.5
	9:00	EUR	CPI y/y	2.4%	2.4%
	12:30	USD	Building Permits	0.77M	0.76M
	12:30	USD	Unemployment Claims	365K	361K
	12:30	USD	Housing Starts	0.76M	0.76M
	14:00	USD	Philly Fed Manufacturing Index	-4.3	-12.9
Aug 17	6:00	EUR	German PPI m/m	0.4%	-0.4%
	8:00	EUR	Current Account	7.8B	10.9B
	13:55	USD	Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment	72.5	72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country

Aug 16 09:30 UK

Aug 16 15:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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