Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 93.53 adding a few cents after the EIA release showed a larger decrease than expected.

Today’s EIA inventory report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 3.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

Crude oil prices slid slightly lower on Wednesday, ahead of the release of the weekly EIA oil inventories report that could clarify the levels of the US oil demand. Oil futures had risen on Tuesday, helped by US data showing a surge in consumer spending in July and eurozone growth data that came in line with expectations, traders said.

Concerns about supply shortfalls arising from forthcoming maintenance in the North Sea also lent support, as did worries that violence in Syria could impact the oil-producing Middle East region.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event 

actual

 

forecast

 

previous

   

Aug. 15

 

AUD

 

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

-2.50%

 

 

 

3.70% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

Wage Price Index (QoQ) 

1.0%

 

0.8% 

 

0.9% 

 

 

 

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.20%

 

8.90% 

 

9.00% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-5.9K

 

6.0K 

 

1.0K 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

MPC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-5.8

 

6.5 

 

7.4 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.6% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2% 

 

2.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

9.3B

 

63.0B 

 

55.9B 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event  

Forecast

Previous

Aug 16

9:00

CHF

ZEW Economic Expectations

 

-42.5

 

9:00

EUR

CPI y/y

2.4%

2.4%

 

12:30

USD

Building Permits

0.77M

0.76M

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

365K

361K

 

12:30

USD

Housing Starts

0.76M

0.76M

 

14:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

-4.3

-12.9

Aug 17

6:00

EUR

German PPI m/m

0.4%

-0.4%

 

8:00

EUR

Current Account

7.8B

10.9B

 

13:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.5

72.3

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 16  09:30  UK

Aug 16  15:00  US 

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