Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 95.55 continuing to gain, after falling a bit this morning on rumors that the US might open the Strategic Reserves.

Crude oil prices were seen easing after the recent rally in the international market. Brent crude oil dropped over one percent while in Nymex it dropped more than 0.5 per cent after reports over possible release of oil reserves by the US. According to a report by Reuters, the US was considering the release of oil reserves to dampen the rising gasoline prices and to prevent high energy costs from undermining sanctions against Iran. Also continued escalations in Syria, keep the Middle East off balance.

The driving effect on the markets though was the decrease in inventory reported earlier in the week by the EIA. The Energy Information Administration said Wednesday U.S. stockpiles decreased by 3.7 million barrels in the week ending Saturday, about 2 million barrels more than traders had predicted.

Supplies, at 366.2 million barrels, remain above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year, but the draw gave prices a late bounce Wednesday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

0.9%

 

1.3% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Current Account 

12.7B

 

11.1B 

 

10.3B 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

10.5B

 

5.4B 

 

6.8B 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.3%

 

2.0% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

73.6

 

72.4 

 

72.3 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Inflation Expectations 

3.6%

 

 

 

3.0% 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

        Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 21

8:30

GBP

Public Sector Net Borrowing

12.1B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-6

Aug 22

14:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

4.37M

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

-3.7M

 

18:00

USD

FOMC Meeting Minutes

 

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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