Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 22, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil climbed to trade at 97.36, ignoring warning from the Obama Administration on the possible release of the strategic reserves, although the International Energy Association said there were more than enough crude oil supplies that supply was not the reason for price increases.
Geopolitical tensions are also not the main focus, as Israel and Iran are only using rhetoric during the US presidential campaign.
Nymex crude oil prices gained around 0.7 percent today taking cues from expectations that European policymakers will take steps to curtail Euro Zone debt crisis coupled with weakness in the DX. However, expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories prevented sharp upside in the prices.
The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 0.1 million barrels for the week ending on 17th August 2012. Gasoline stocks are expected to fall by 0.1 million barrels and distillate inventories are expected to rise by 1.3 million barrels for the same week.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 22, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
|
Aug. 21 |
|
AUD |
|
|
Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes |
|
|
|
|
|
|
||
|
|
|
NZD |
|
|
Inflation Expectations (QoQ) |
2.3% |
|
|
|
2.4% |
|
||
|
|
|
HKD |
|
|
Hong Kong CPI (YoY) |
1.60% |
|
3.40% |
|
3.70% |
|
||
|
|
|
GBP |
|
|
CBI Industrial Trends Orders |
-21 |
|
-8 |
|
-6 |
|
||
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Wholesale Sales (MoM) |
-0.1% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.9% |
WEEKLY
-
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Aug 22 |
7:00am |
CHF |
2.10B |
||
|
8:00am |
EUR |
43.8 |
2.25B |
||
|
8:00am |
EUR |
50.1 |
43.4 |
||
|
Aug 23 |
8:30am |
EUR |
43.6 |
50.0 |
|
|
8:30am |
EUR |
50.2 |
43.0 |
||
|
9:00am |
EUR |
44.3 |
50.3 |
||
|
9:00am |
EUR |
47.9 |
44.0 |
||
|
9:30am |
GBP |
28.2K |
47.9 |
||
|
11:00am |
GBP |
16 |
26.3K |
||
|
1:30pm |
USD |
365K |
11 |
||
|
2:00pm |
USD |
51.3 |
366K |
||
|
3:00pm |
USD |
362K |
51.4 |
||
|
9:30am |
GBP |
-0.5% |
350K |
||
|
9:30am |
GBP |
2.8% |
-0.7% |
||
|
1:30pm |
USD |
0.5% |
1.9% |
||
|
Aug 24 |
1:30pm |
USD |
2.8% |
-1.4% |
|
|
2:00pm |
EUR |
-10.8 |
1.3% |
||
Government Bond Auctions
Date Time Country
21/8 10:30 Spain
21/8 12:00 EFSF
22/8 11:30 Germany
22/8 11:10 Sweden
23/8 05:45 Japan
23/8 11:30 UK
23/8 19:00 US
27/8 11:30 Germany
28/8 10:30 Spain
28/8 11:00 Italy
28/8 19:00 US
29/8 11:00 Italy
29/8 19:00 US
30/8 05:35 Japan
30/8 11:00 Italy
30/8 19:00 US
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