Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 28, 2012, Forecast

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By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil was the most active asset today, falling 1.16 to trade under the 95 level at 94.99 at this time. The tropical storm threats in the Gulf of Mexico eased Monday afternoon.

As The Gulf of Mexico is accounts for more than 23 percent of US oil production, thus disturbances in this region have driven oil prices higher.

The week's marquee event is the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday 31st August, followed by speech of ECB president on next Saturday. And before this US economic growth will be painted by Beige book releases on Wednesday. With the hope of easing by major Central banks and their upcoming steps, the global market is likely to continue its skeptical move in the coming week also. Hence the major commodity like Crude oil prices is also expected to take the advantage of this move.

With the easing of threats in the Gulf and lower demand and rumors of release of the strategic reserves oil is expected to continue to decline ahead of Mr. Bernanke's address.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 27

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.30%

 

0.20% 

 

-0.30% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

102.3

 

102.6 

 

103.2 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Current Assessment 

111.2

 

110.8 

 

111.5 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German Business Expectations 

94.2

 

95.0 

 

95.5 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Aug. 28

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9 

 

15:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence 

65.9 

Aug. 29

01:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4% 

 

01:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

Government Bond Auctions

Date Time Country 

28/8  10:30  Spain

28/8  11:00  Italy 

28/8  19:00  US 

29/8  11:00  Italy 

29/8  19:00  US 

30/8  05:35  Japan

30/8  11:00  Italy 

30/8  19:00  US

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