Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 31, 2012, Forecast
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Analysis and Recommendations:
Crude Oil dipped today to trade at 95.11. Crude oil was seen trimming earlier losses. Crude oil in NYMEX was seen rebounding following an initial dip while Brent inched higher, rising more than 0.5 per cent. However, rise in crude oil stockpiles and weakening Hurricane Isaac reducing the threat to offshore platforms weighing on prices.
Crude oil price were weak after oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico were largely spared storm damage, but maintenance at North Sea fields and a possible strike in Norway’s oil sector curbed losses. Hurricane Isaac was downgraded to a tropical storm on Wednesday as it continued to batter the U.S. Gulf
Coast, causing flooding and power outages but so far no discernible damage to refineries or offshore oil and gas platforms. U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.78 million barrels in the week to Aug. 24, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday, against expectations of a 1.5 million-barrel fall.
FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.
Economic Data August 30, 2012 actual v. forecast
|
Date |
|
Currency |
|
|
Event |
Actual |
|
Forecast |
|
Previous |
|
|
|
Aug. 30 |
|
JPY |
|
|
Retail Sales (YoY) |
-0.8% |
|
-0.2% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Building Approvals (MoM) |
-17.3% |
|
-5.0% |
|
-1.0% |
||
|
|
|
AUD |
|
|
Private New Capital Expenditure (QoQ) |
3.4% |
|
2.4% |
|
7.7% |
||
|
|
|
DKK |
|
|
Danish Unemployment Rate |
4.70% |
|
4.70% |
|
4.60% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Rate |
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
6.8% |
|
|
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
German Unemployment Change |
9K |
|
8K |
|
9K |
||
|
|
|
EUR |
|
|
Italian 10-Year BTP Auction |
5.82% |
|
|
|
5.96% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Core PCE Price Index (MoM) |
0.0% |
|
0.1% |
|
0.2% |
|
|
|
|
|
CAD |
|
|
Current Account |
-16.0B |
|
-15.0B |
|
-10.2B |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Personal Spending (MoM) |
0.4% |
|
0.4% |
|
0.0% |
|
|
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Initial Jobless Claims |
374K |
|
370K |
|
374K |
||
|
|
|
USD |
|
|
Continuing Jobless Claims |
3316K |
|
3307K |
|
3321K |
WEEKLY
-
This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule) -
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD
|
Date |
Time |
Currency |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
|
Aug.31 |
07:00 |
GBP |
0.1% |
-0.7% |
|
|
|
10:00 |
EUR |
2.5% |
2.4% |
|
|
|
14:45 |
USD |
53.5 |
53.7 |
|
|
|
14:55 |
USD |
73.6 |
73.6 |
Government Bond Auctions
Aug 31 14:30 UK Publication of the Q4 Gilt operations calendar
Sep 03 09:10 Norway Bond auction
Sep 03 10:00 Belgium OLO auction
Sep 04 00:30 Japan Auctions 10Y JGBs
Sep 04 09:15 Austria Bond auction
Sep 04 09:30 Belgium Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills
Sep 04 14:30 UK Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep
Sep 05 09:10 Sweden Nominal bond auction
Sep 05 09:30 Germany Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction
Sep 05 09:30 UK 4.5% 2042 Gilt auction
Sep 06 00:30 Japan Auctions 30Y JGBs
Sep 06 08:30 Spain Bono auction
Sep 06 08:50 France OAT auction
Sep 06 09:10 Sweden I/L bond auction
Sep 06 15:00 US Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &
Sep 07 15:30 Italy
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