Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 6, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is holding at 89.40 adding 2.27 on the back of a good nonfarm payroll reports, a weaker USD and a bit of geopolitical turmoil as Syria continues to be a problem in the Middle East. This morning Kofi Amman stepped down from his post at the UN, unable to resolve the conflict.

Consumption remains depressed but this week’s EIA inventory showed that the current inventory dropped more than expected helping support higher prices.

However, worries over global economic growth restricted gains. Currency fluctuations weighed on the base metal complex Base metals pared the initial gains and was seen turning red. Aluminum declined the most, falling nearly 0.5 per cent. Crude oil was seen recovering slightly after the previous session losses. Nymex crude oil rose more than one per cent from its three week low levels, although the jobs increase is being seen as a statistical fluke, offset by a rise in the unemployment level.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 03

 

TRY

 

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

-0.23%

 

-0.10% 

 

-0.90% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.8% 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

163K

 

100K 

 

64K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.3%

 

8.2% 

 

8.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5

 

34.5 

 

34.5 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

172K

 

110K 

 

73K 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 6

8:30

EUR

Sentix Investor Confidence

-29.6

 

23:01

GBP

BRC Retail Sales Monitor y/y

1.4%

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 06  09:10  Norway

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

Aug 13  09:10  Italy

Aug 13  09:10  Norway

Aug 13  09:30  Germany

Aug 14  09:10  Greece 

Aug 14  09:10  Italy

Aug 14  09:30  Belgium

Aug 14  14:30  UK

Aug 15  09:10  Sweden

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