Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis August 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil dipped a bit in today’s session after market jubilation turned to negative sentiment after the release of an interview with Prime Minister Monti, who said that the pressures and stress of dealing with the global crisis may have permanent effects on the eurozone and the relationships between countries.

South Sudanese officials will meet their Sudanese counterparts “soon” to conclude an oil deal and continue talks on security issues, said Pagan Amum, the south’s chief negotiator. South Sudan, which halted oil production in January amid a dispute with Sudan over transit fees, is able to resume production by September, he said in a statement published on the government’s website.

At independence, South Sudan assumed 75 percent of the previous country’s 490,000 barrels a day in oil production.

On Thursday and Friday, China will release its monthly economic data for July, ranging from trade balance to money supply. Traders are a bit worried about what is to come.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Aug. 06

 

AUD

 

 

 

MI Inflation Gauge (MoM) 

0.2%

 

 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

TWD

 

 

 

Taiwanese CPI (YoY) 

2.46%

 

2.02% 

 

1.77% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

 

ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) 

-0.80%

 

 

 

-1.10% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.6%

 

-0.5% 

0.8%  

                

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Previous

Aug 7

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

364.9B

 

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

 

8:00

EUR

Italian Industrial Production m/m

0.8%

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

1.2%

 

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.6%

 

14:00

GBP

NIESR GDP Estimate

-0.2%

Aug 8

5:45

CHF

SECO Consumer Climate

-8

 

9:30

GBP

BOE Inflation Report

 
 

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

1.6%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Nonfarm Productivity q/q

-0.9%

 

12:30

USD

Prelim Unit Labor Costs q/q

1.3%

 

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Aug 9

8:00

EUR

ECB Monthly Bulletin

 
 

8:30

GBP

Trade Balance

-8.4B

 

12:30

USD

Trade Balance

-48.7B

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

Aug 10

6:45

EUR

French Industrial Production m/m

-1.9%

 

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.2%

 

12:30

USD

Import Prices m/m

-2.7%

 

18:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance

-59.7B

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Aug 07  00:30  Japan

Aug 07  09:15  Austria

Aug 07  14:30  UK

Aug 07  17:00  US

Aug 08  09:30  Germany

Aug 08  10:00  Norway

Aug 08  15:30  Italy

Aug 08  17:00  US

Aug 09  15:30  Italy

Aug 09  17:00  US

Aug 10  10:00  Belgium

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