Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading up by 0.69 at 86.77 on simple market sentiment. Investors seemed to be relieved once the Chinese data was released and wandered out looking for a bit more risk and pushing up commodities.  (See chart below)

As the week culminates, the much awaited Chinese GDP data released earlier today was almost in line with expectation. However, in the second quarter of 2012 the economy grew at its slowest pace in three years. Market sentiments to some extent were on the positive side as weak economic indicators from China incited hopes that the country may resort to aggressive monetary policy easing to support economic growth. Commodities and equities were seen moving higher. Weakness in Euro following the downgrade of Italy’s credit ratings by the Moody’s near to junk weighed on the overall sentiments. Yet, Italy was successful in selling the planned amount of bonds in the auction earlier today.

Precious metals were seen rising after the Chinese data, extending the rebound seen in the previous session. Spot gold and silver gained around 0.6 per cent and one per cent respectively probably heading to end the session on a positive note. Base metal complex in LME as well as in Shanghai were on a greener turf. Except for aluminums, other metals in LME rose more than 1.5 per cent with copper prices touching one week high levels.

Crude oil prices continued the buying momentum from the previous session after the U.S imposed more sanctions on Iran and falling crude oil inventories. In the domestic market, the gains were limited following an appreciation in the Indian currency, which rose 0.67 percent against the dollar

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 13

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.4%

 

20.1% 

 

20.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese GDP (YoY) 

7.6%

 

7.6% 

 

8.1% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

9.5%

 

9.8% 

 

9.6% 

 

 

 

03:00

 

CNY

 

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.7%

 

13.5% 

 

13.8% 

 

 

 

05:30

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-3.4%

 

-3.1% 

 

-3.1% 

 

 

 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

10:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.82%

 

 

 

6.19% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

2.0% 

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.0% 

 

-0.5% 

 

-1.0% 

 

 

 

14:55

 

USD

 

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

 

 

73.4 

 

73.2 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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