Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 23, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 91.32 as mid east tensions mount. Eco data in the U.S. and China have not deteriorated significantly. Growth is relatively slow, but recession fears are overblown barring a financial shock in Europe. Additionally, geopolitical concerns are creeping back into the market. The recent tensions between Syria and Turkey may have broader implications for stability in the Middle East, even though neither country is a significant oil exporter. With OPEC spare capacity at extremely low levels (2.38 mmbbl/d as of May), the oil market is vulnerable to supply shocks.

Moreover, the thin cushion gives the cartel—particularly Saudi Arabia—a substantial amount of control over the direction of prices. For much of the year, the Saudis have chosen to open the spigots to lower prices. After the recent correction, the country may switch gears to support prices.

The recent terrorist attack on a bus of Israelis’ in Bulgaria has Israel pointing finger at Iran as global geopolitical tensions surge.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 20

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

 

Import Price Index (QoQ) 

2.4%

 

1.5% 

 

-1.2% 

 

 

 

04:00

 

NZD

 

 

 

Credit Card Spending (YoY) 

4.6%

 

 

 

3.9% 

 

 

 

06:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

Estonian PPI (MoM) 

0.00%

 

 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

07:00

 

EUR

 

 

 

German PPI (YoY) 

1.6%

 

1.8% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

 

08:00

 

DKK

 

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.2%

 

 

 

-0.5% 

   

 

08:30

 

EUR

 

 

 

Dutch Consumer Spending 

-1.90

 

 

 

-2.10 

   

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

 

Public Sector Net Borrowing 

12.1B

 

11.0B 

 

16.1B 

   

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

CAD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

1.5%

 

2.0% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Previous

Jul 24

7:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.2

7:00

EUR

French Flash Services PMI

47.9

7:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.0

7:30

EUR

German Flash Services PMI

49.9

8:00

EUR

Flash Manufacturing PMI

45.1

8:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

30.2K

9:00

EUR

Flash Services PMI

47.1

13:00

USD

Flash Manufacturing PMI

52.5

Jul 25

8:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

105.3

 

8:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

-0.3%

10:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Order Expectations

-11

13:00

EUR

Belgium NBB Business Climate

-13.2

14:00

USD

New Home Sales

369K

14:30

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

Jul 26

6:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.8

8:00

EUR

M3 Money Supply y/y

2.9%

12:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

0.7%

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

 

14:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

5.9%

Jul 27

27th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

-0.6%

All Day

EUR

German Prelim CPI m/m

-0.1%

7:00

CHF

KOF Economic Barometer

1.16

12:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

1.9%

13:55

USD

Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment

72.0

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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