Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 30, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil was largely ignored in today’s trading, holding at 89.50, as investors waited for the 2nd quarter GDP numbers. Although the print met expectations, forecasts were set so low, that the report was disappointing. The prior quarter GDP was at 2.0% and this quarter was revised to 1.5% which is a huge drop.

With the US one of the largest consumers of crude oil, and a drop in growth to this extent, will force a downwards revision to crude oil consumption levels and demands for the balance of the year, pressurizing prices.

Markets are hoping that the FOMC will inject some stimulus next week, to pump up the sagging economy and hopefully increase demand for oil.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data July 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 27

 

JPY

 

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

0.2%

 

1.2% 

 

3.6% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

 

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.43

 

1.25 

 

1.15 

  

 

 

SEK

 

 

 

Swedish Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.40%

 

0.20% 

 

0.30% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.4% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

1.7%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

2.0% 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 30

30th-31st

GBP

Nationwide HPI m/m

0.8%

-0.6%

 

7:00

EUR

Spanish Flash GDP q/q

 

-0.3%

 

8:30

GBP

Net Lending to Individuals m/m

 

1.3B

 

10:00

GBP

CBI Realized Sales

 

42

 

23:01

GBP

GfK Consumer Confidence

 

-29

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 30  09:10  Italy  

Jul 30  10:00  Belgium

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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