Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 31, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil prices were floating near its one week high levels. Brent crude was hovering near $106 a barrel while Nymex crude oil was held near $90 a barrel. Boiling geopolitical tensions in Middle-east and optimism over monetary easing kept prices near the one week high/ Crude is trading at this writing at 89.81

An action packed week ahead, the US Federal Open Market Committee’s and European Central Bank’s policy decision on Wednesday and Thursday respectively takes the center stage. The investor sentiments are likely to evolve around these two crucial events that may set a tone for the market in coming days. Following a string of weak economic indicators and sagging economic growth numbers from US, market expectations are high that the Federal Reserve may launch more aggressive measures, probably another round of quantitative easing to prop up economic growth. The advanced estimates of the US second quarter GDP and personal spending released indicated a slowdown reigniting hopes of monetary easing by the Fed. Over to the other side of Atlantic, with ECB Chairman promising to do whatever it takes to preserve Euro, the rate announcement and post announcement speech on Thursday will be highly watched out for ECB’s take. Apart from this, Chinese manufacturing PMI for July on Wednesday and US non-farm payrolls on Friday will probably be the other market movers. For the day, no major data are slated to release except for US Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for July.

Meanwhile, Euro Zone economic confidence data released earlier today fell, punctured by deepening worries over economic crisis in Euro Zone.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data for July 30, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

Importance

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Jul. 30

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.1%

 

1.5% 

 

-3.4% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

AUD

 

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

2.8%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

 

 

10:20

 

EUR

 

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.96%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

11:00

 

GBP

 

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

11

 

15 

 

42 

  

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR and GBP

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Jul 31

6:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending m/m

 

0.4%

 

7:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change

 

7K

 

9:00

EUR

CPI Flash Estimate y/y

 

2.4%

 

9:00

EUR

Unemployment Rate

 

11.1%

Aug 1

1st-8th

GBP

Halifax HPI m/m

 

1.0%

 

7:15

EUR

Spanish Manufacturing PMI

 

41.1

 

7:45

EUR

Italian Manufacturing PMI

 

44.6

 

8:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

 

48.6

Aug 2

7:00

EUR

Spanish Unemployment Change

 

-98.9K

 

7:15

CHF

Retail Sales y/y

 

6.2%

 

7:30

CHF

SVME PMI

 

48.1

 

8:30

GBP

Construction PMI

 

48.2

 

11:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

 

375B

 

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

 

12:30

EUR

ECB Press Conference

  

Aug 3

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

 

51.3

 

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

 

0.6%

Government Bond Auctions

Date  Time  Country 

Jul 31  00:30  Japan

Jul 31  09:30  Belgium

Aug 01  09:30  Germany

Aug 01  10:00  Norway

Aug 01  13:00  US

Aug 02  08:30  Spain

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