Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis July 4, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 86.34 as geopolitical tensions mount between Iran and the west, though more about rhetoric then action. Iranian lawmakers are trying to legislate action in the Gulf of Hormuz to stop any ship carrying oil through the passageway. This threat is not new and the last time when the military became involved not the politicians, NATO pushed them out of the way and forced them to back down. There is no possible way that Iran will be able to block the Gulf so it is politicians making idle threats and noise.

Otherwise on the eco front this is little data to support a move upwards in the crude oil, except the hope that a rate cut by the ECB will stimulate growth, and the always present dreams of Fed intervention in the US. Market rumors are beginning to surface saying that the Fed’s or possibility a global action by the central banks will relax monetary and rates to stimulate growth. No one is sure and everyone dreams.

US markets will be closed for the 4th of July holiday and there will be light volume leading up and after the holiday.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

 Event

Forecast

Previous

Jul 4

 

 

 

 

Jul 5

8:00

EUR

Final Services PMI

46.8

46.8

8:30

GBP

Services PMI

53.0

53.3

9:00

EUR

Retail Sales m/m

0.2%

-1.0%

10:00

EUR

German Factory Orders m/m

0.2%

-1.9%

11:00

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

11:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

1.00%

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

133K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

385K

386K

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

53.1

53.7

15:00

USD

Crude Oil Inventories

 

-0.1M

Jul 6

7:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

303.8B

7:15

CHF

CPI m/m

-0.3%

0.0%

8:30

GBP

PPI Input m/m

-2.1%

-2.5%

10:00

EUR

German Industrial Production m/m

0.3%

-2.2%

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

92K

69K

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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