Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis May 16, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 94.53 down 0.25 in today’s session. U.S. crude prices dropped towards $94 a barrel on Tuesday, pressured by concerns that Europe would slip into a worse-than-expected recession. NYMEX crude for June slipped 63 cents to $94.15 a barrel by, after falling more than a dollar the previous session.  The euro fell to a nearly four-month low against the dollar on Monday on fears Greece could exit the euro and worries that weak industrial data signaled that Europe was heading for recession.

High oil prices are threatening the global economic recovery, the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency Maria van der Hoeven said in a report.

Crude oil pared the earlier losses and was seen rebounding though it continued to hover near the five month low levels in Nymex. However, expectation of higher build up in crude oil inventories may keep the gains under check. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports, which cover the current week and are published by Sunday before the new week begins.

Economic Reports May 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

 

EUR

 

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.3% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.1% 

  

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.5%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German GDP (YoY) 

1.7%

 

0.8% 

 

1.5% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) 

0.1%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.1% 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

 

Trade Balance 

-8.6B

 

-8.4B 

 

-8.6B 

  

 

EUR

 

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

10.8

 

19.0 

 

23.4 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-2.4

 

11.7 

 

13.1 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.8% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

0.2% 

 

0.7% 

  

 

USD

 

 

 

NY Empire State MFG Index 

17.1

 

8.5 

 

6.6 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.3% 

 

2.7% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.3% 

 

2.3% 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

 

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

36.2B

 

19.4B 

 

10.1B 

  

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

May 16 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

 

1.0% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

 

09:30

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

 

 

5.0K 

 

3.6K 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

2.6% 

 

 

 

10:00

 

EUR

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.5% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

10:30

 

GBP

 

 

BoE Inflation Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:30

 

GBP

 

 

BoE Gov King Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

10:30

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

 

 

 

 

1.770% 

 

 

 

11:00

 

EUR

 

 

Portuguese Unemployment Rate 

 

 

 

 

14.00% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

 

 

0.730M 

 

0.764M 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

 

 

0.680M 

 

0.654M 

 

 

 

14:15

 

USD

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

 

 

0.6% 

 

0.0% 

 

 

 

15:00

 

EUR

 

 

ECB President Draghi Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 May 17

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

365K 

 

367K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3235K 

 

3229K 

 

 

 

15:00

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

 

 

10.0 

 

8.5 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
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