Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis May 24, 2013 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis May 24, 2013 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis May 24, 2013 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at $93.00 down over $1 today, as the strong greenback as and higher than expected inventories weigh on the commodity. The crushing blow came from China where manufacturing PMI reported well below expectations but also below the 50 number showing “contraction” in manufacturing.  HSBC Corp. said a preliminary version of its monthly purchasing managers’ index fell to 49.6 for May from 50.4 in April. Numbers below 50 indicate contraction. Oil prices fell because a downturn in energy-hungry China would likely lead to a decline in crude demand.

Crude prices were also struggling as global markets turned sour due to signs that the U.S. Federal Reserve could slowly tighten its monetary policy. Equity markets posted large losses Thursday in Asia and Europe, including a 7.3 percent fall in Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 index of shares.

Ample U.S. supplies of crude oil and refined products such as gasoline also weighed on prices, even though demand was expected to increase in the short term.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data May 23, 2013 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

May 23

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.60

 

50.50 

 

50.40 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

45.5

 

44.8 

 

44.4 

 

 

 

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Retail Sales (YoY) 

-1.5%

 

-3.0% 

 

-4.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

49.0

 

48.5 

 

48.1 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

47.8

 

47.0 

 

46.7 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

1.7% 

 

-0.8% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

0.6%

 

0.6% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Member Bullard Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

340K

 

345K 

 

363K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

2912K

 

3000K 

 

3024K 

   

 crude oil 0523bns 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP, CAD and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

May 24

07:00

EUR

German GDP (QoQ) 

0.1% 

0.1% 

 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

6.2 

6.2 

 

07:00

EUR

German GDP (YoY) 

-1.4% 

-1.4% 

 

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

104.5 

104.4 

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

107.2 

107.2 

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

101.6 

101.6 

 

09:30

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

32.7K 

31.2K 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.5% 

-2.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

1.5% 

-6.9% 

WEEKLY

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