Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 1, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 28, 2012 15:41 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained to trade at 92.00 today on increased consumer spending in the United States and Spain’s apparent progress towards economic stability were suggested as the drivers of crude oil’s latest wriggle higher today. These positives have been taken by oil traders as a sign of greater stability and potentially greater demand.

Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.33 percent taking cues from expectations of favorable US economic data along with upbeat global market sentiments in the early part of the trade. Additionally, a mixed trend in the DX also supported an upside in the crude oil prices.

However, with the major consumer China closing for a week long holiday, activities are likely to remain sluggish. Meanwhile, amid positive cues from Spain and China, comments by the Israeli Prime Minister lifted crude oil prices. NYMEX crude oil firmed up above $92 a barrel while, Brent crude oil gained nearly one per cent on supply concerns on the growing tension in the Middle East.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 28, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 28

KRW

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY)

0.3%

0.4%

0.2%

JPY

Unemployment Rate

4.2%

4.3%

JPY

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY)

-0.4%

-0.3%

-0.5%

JPY

Industrial Production (MoM)

-1.3%

-0.5%

-1.0%

JPY

Retail Sales (YoY)

1.8%

-0.2%

-0.8%

EUR

French GDP (QoQ)

0.0%

0.0%

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM)

0.4%

-0.1%

0.4%

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators

1.67

1.57

1.59

EUR

CPI (YoY)

2.7%

2.4%

2.6%

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM)

0.1%

0.1%

CAD

GDP (MoM)

0.2%

0.2%

0.1%

USD

Personal Spending (MoM)

0.5%

0.5%

0.4%

USD

Chicago PMI

49.7

53.0

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment

78.3

79.0

79.2

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 01	08:15	CHF	Retail Sales (YoY)	5.0%	3.2%
	08:30	CHF	SVME PMI	47.0	46.7
	15:00	USD	ISM Manufacturing Index	49.8	49.6

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 01 10:00 Norway

Oct 02 09:15 Austria

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium

Oct 02 09:30 UK

Oct 02 14:30 UK

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden

Oct 03 10:00 Norway

Oct 04 08:30 Spain

Oct 04 08:50 France

Oct 04 15:00 US

Oct 05 15:30 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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