Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 11, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil climbed on Middle Eastern tensions to trade at 93.40 adding over 1.00 today. This was about the only commodity to see any action today. The US dollar strengthened a little but not significantly so. There was little data or news today, except a lot of tension in the Middle East.

Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.5 percent taking cues from expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with slowdown in the Chinese economic growth. Apart from that strength in the DX also added downside pressure on the oil prices. Oil traded near its highest in a week in New York as concern that political tension in the Middle East may curb crude exports countered signs that supplies are building up as the global recovery falters. U.S. crude inventories probably rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported its weekly inventories and US crude oil inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels for the week ending on 5th October 2012.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 10

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.00%

 

 

 

1.60% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean M2 Money supply 

9.20%

 

 

 

9.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German WPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.1% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Machine Tool Orders (YoY) 

-3.0%

 

 

 

-2.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Finnish Industry Output (MoM) 

-1.40%

 

 

 

2.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.6% 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 11

07:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0% 

0.0% 

 

07:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0% 

2.0% 

 

07:45

EUR

French CPI (MoM) 

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.0B 

-42.0B 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

367K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3275K 

3281K 

 

19:00

USD

Federal Budget Balance 

-4.0B 

-191.0B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 11 09:10 Italy  

Oct 11 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 11 09:30 UK 

Oct 11 15:00 US 

Oct 11 17:00 US 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

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