Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 12, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil bounced on positive sentiment as the US reported a positive change in unemployment with old and new claims reporting well below expectations. Crude climbed to 92.46 Nymex crude oil prices adding 0.5 percent taking cues from expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with slowdown in the Chinese economic growth. Apart from that strength in the DX also added downside pressure on the oil prices. Oil traded near its highest in a week in New York as concern that political tension in the Middle East may curb crude exports countered signs that supplies are building up as the global recovery falters. U.S. crude inventories probably rose 1.5 million barrels last week, according to a Bloomberg News survey before an Energy Department report tomorrow. The American Petroleum Institute (API) reported its weekly inventories and US crude oil inventories increased by 1.0 million barrels for the week ending on 5th October 2012.

Today’s inventory report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 366.4 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 11, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 11

 

JPY

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

14.5K

3.8K 

-9.1K 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.4%

5.3% 

5.1% 

 

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

2.75%

2.75% 

3.00% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

0.0% 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.0% 

2.1% 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Trade Balance 

-18.1B

 

-15.6B 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

-0.3%

0.1% 

0.7% 

 

 

HUF

 

 

Hungarian CPI (YoY) 

6.6%

6.4% 

6.0% 

 

 

SEK

 

 

Swedish CPI (YoY) 

0.4%

0.7% 

0.7% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

1.1%

0.7% 

1.1% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-1.3B

-2.0B 

-2.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-44.2B

-44.0B 

-42.5B 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

339K

370K 

369K 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3273K

3275K 

3288K 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule) 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 12

10:00

EUR

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.2% 

 

13:30

USD

PPI (MoM) 

0.8% 

1.7% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

77.9 

78.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 12 09:30 Germany 

Oct 12 10:00 Belgium

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

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