Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 15, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil moved between gains and losses today, trading at 92.25 as global growth worries, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and higher than expected inventories left speculators uncertain. Prices seem to be supported by the tension between Syria and Turkey.

In an interview today, IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven is quoted as saying “The oil market is at a crossroads,”  she continues to say “On each and every front – technology, geopolitics, the economy – potentially game-changing developments are taking place, she says according to a press release from the International Energy Agency (IEA).

IEA released its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) today.

The report’s projection of a return to higher OPEC spare production capacity will be welcome news amid rising supply and demand risks, Maria van der Hoeven added. 

The report states that today’s weak economic environment has reduced expectations of oil demand growth for the medium term, yet the reallocation of demand by region and key product, which has been underway for the last 15 to 20 years, is expected to continue.

On the supply side, most of the growth will come from the Americas, buoyed by the transformative power of advanced extractive technologies applied to light, tight oil deposits in the US and the Canadian oil sands that has exceeded earlier expectations.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 12, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 12

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.5% 

 

-1.9% 

   

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

2.7%

 

1.1% 

 

-0.2% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.2% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

1.8% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.3%

 

2.5% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

83.1

 

78.0 

 

78.3 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Previous

Oct. 15 

08:15

CHF

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 15 09:10 Slovakia 

Oct 15 10:00 Norway 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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