Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled following most to the commodities down today, to trade at 91.61 off by 0.68 cents. Oil was down after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global crude demand growth forecast for this year and next and data showed rising US stockpiles, analysts said. Crude prices were hit by the IEA reducing its forecast for global demand in 2012 and 2013. Data released last week also showed that crude supplies rose in the US and this seems to be a trend that may continue… while the slow growth will mean muted demand for the black gold continue.

In the US, official data released last week showed crude stockpiles in the world’s largest oil consumer rising by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending October 5, far more than analyst projections of an 800,000 barrel increase. Rising inventories indicate weaker energy demand in the world’s biggest economy.

Prices remain supported by the tension in the Middle East between Turkey and Syria.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 15

 

GBP

 

 

Rightmove House Price Index (MoM) 

3.5%

 

 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

1.8%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

1.9%

 

1.9% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.6%

 

-3.6% 

 

-3.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.6% 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

-1.3% 

 

-1.3% 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate 

8.40%

 

8.20% 

 

8.00% 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.2% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish CPI (YoY) 

3.8%

 

3.9% 

 

3.8% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.6% 

 

1.0% 

 

 

USD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

1.1%

 

0.8% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

USD

 

 

NY Empire State Manufacturing Index 

-6.2

 

-4.5 

 

-10.4 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 16

09:30

GBP

CPI (YoY) 

2.2%

2.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

-0.1%

2.0%

 

09:30

GBP

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

-0.8%

1.4%

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.7%

2.7%

 

10:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-16.0

-18.2

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

 

1.5%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2%

0.1%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

0.6%

 

13:30

USD

CPI (YoY) 

1.8%

1.7%

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

1.9%

 

14:00

USD

TIC Net Long-Term Transactions 

 

67.0B

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2%

-1.2%

Oct. 17

09:30

GBP

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

 

1.5%

 

09:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change 

 

-15.0K

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 16 08:30 Spain 

Oct 16 09:10 Greece 

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain 

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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