Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 15, 2012 17:29 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 16, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled following most to the commodities down today, to trade at 91.61 off by 0.68 cents. Oil was down after the International Energy Agency (IEA) cut its global crude demand growth forecast for this year and next and data showed rising US stockpiles, analysts said. Crude prices were hit by the IEA reducing its forecast for global demand in 2012 and 2013. Data released last week also showed that crude supplies rose in the US and this seems to be a trend that may continue… while the slow growth will mean muted demand for the black gold continue.

In the US, official data released last week showed crude stockpiles in the world’s largest oil consumer rising by 1.7 million barrels in the week ending October 5, far more than analyst projections of an 800,000 barrel increase. Rising inventories indicate weaker energy demand in the world’s biggest economy.

Prices remain supported by the tension in the Middle East between Turkey and Syria.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 15, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 15	GBP	Rightmove House Price Index (MoM)	3.5%		-0.6%
	AUD	Home Loans (MoM)	1.8%	1.4%	-0.7%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (YoY)	1.9%	1.9%	2.0%
	CNY	Chinese PPI (YoY)	-3.6%	-3.6%	-3.5%
	CNY	Chinese CPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.4%	0.6%
	JPY	Industrial Production (MoM)	-1.6%	-1.3%	-1.3%
	TRY	Turkish Quarterly Unemployment Rate	8.40%	8.20%	8.00%
	CHF	PPI (MoM)	0.3%	0.2%	0.5%
	PLN	Polish CPI (YoY)	3.8%	3.9%	3.8%
	USD	Core Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.6%	1.0%
	USD	Retail Sales (MoM)	1.1%	0.8%	1.2%
	USD	NY Empire State Manufacturing Index	-6.2	-4.5	-10.4

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 16	09:30	GBP	CPI (YoY)	2.2%	2.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	-0.1%	2.0%
	09:30	GBP	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.5%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	-0.8%	1.4%
	10:00	EUR	CPI (YoY)	2.7%	2.7%
	10:00	EUR	German ZEW Economic Sentiment	-16.0	-18.2
	10:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY)		1.5%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	CPI (MoM)	0.4%	0.6%
	13:30	USD	CPI (YoY)	1.8%	1.7%
	13:30	USD	Core CPI (YoY)	2.0%	1.9%
	14:00	USD	TIC Net Long-Term Transactions		67.0B
	14:15	USD	Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-1.2%
Oct. 17	09:30	GBP	Average Earnings Index +Bonus		1.5%
	09:30	GBP	Claimant Count Change		-15.0K
Oct. 18	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (MoM)	0.4%	-0.2%
	09:30	GBP	Retail Sales (YoY)	2.1%	2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 16 08:30 Spain

Oct 16 09:10 Greece

Oct 16 09:30 Belgium

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden

Oct 17 09:30 Germany

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal

Oct 17 10:00 Norway

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 08:30 Spain

Oct 18 08:50 France

Oct 18 09:30 UK

Oct 18 09:50 France

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden

Oct 18 15:00 US

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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