Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 17, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 92.11 more or less flat for the day.  Oil futures finished nearly unchanged as traders weighed additional signs of weak global oil demand against the prospect of supply disruptions in the Middle East. Nymex crude traded as low as $89.79 earlier in the session, but clawed back its losses as concerns over rising tensions in the Middle East kept traders from pushing prices lower. Oil prices have been on a steady downward trend in recent months, as economic troubles in Europe and a tepid recovery in the U.S. curb demand for oil and refined products like gasoline. U.S. prices topped $100 in September but have fallen steadily since. Underpinning prices, however, remains the threat of supply disruptions due to intensifying unrest in the Middle East. Border skirmishes between Turkey and Syria in recent weeks have raised fears that the civil war in the latter country is spreading to its neighbors, potentially disrupting key oil-transit routes in Turkey or elsewhere.

Today, Iran agreed to negotiate with the west a halt to its nuclear development. This is just a beginning and an agreement is far off, but it may reduce tensions in the mean time. 

Prices are meanwhile under pressure from expectations that US crude stocks rose last week due to an anticipated increase in imports, while weak demand may lift petrol stockpiles, a preliminary Reuter’s poll showed.

Adding to overall supplies, Saudi Arabia pumped about 9.8-million barrels a day of crude oil in September, an industry source said. According to official Saudi government figures supplied to the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), the world’s biggest oil exporter produced 9.75-million barrels a day in August and 9.8-million barrels a day of crude in July.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 16, 2012 actual v. forecast

WEEKLY

• This Week in Petroleum
  Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
  Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
• Weekly Petroleum Status Report
  Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 17 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 17 09:30 Germany 

Oct 17 09:30 Portugal 

Oct 17 10:00 Norway 

Oct 17 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US