Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 18, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil traded fairly flat today, holding in the low 92.00 price. At this time crude is trading at 92.38. Nymex crude oil prices increased by 0.2 percent taking  cues from expectations of positive economic data from US, upbeat global market sentiments along with weakness in the  DX. However, sharp upside in the prices was capped as a result of forecast for the rise in US crude oil inventories.

Crude oil inventories showed a higher increase than markets expected. Markets were forecasting an increase of 1.5m barrel and the final report showed an increase of 2.9m barrel.

The report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 2.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 369.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 17, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 17

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.7%

 

1.6% 

 

1.6% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-4.0K

 

-1.0K 

 

-14.2K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.894M

 

0.810M 

 

0.801M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.872M

 

0.770M 

 

0.758M 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 18

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

-0.2%

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.1%

2.7%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 18 08:30 Spain           

Oct 18 08:50 France 

Oct 18 09:30 UK 

Oct 18 09:50 France 

Oct 18 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 18 15:00 US 

Oct 18 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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