Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 24, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continued to fall today, trading at 86.28, with tensions on high alert in the Middle East, prices still plummeted after Moody’s cut credit rating of several Spanish regions. The ongoing civil war in Syria has shown signs of escalating beyond the country’s borders, keeping oil traders nervously eyeing energy supplies. Syria itself lacks vast oil reserves but a wider conflict could threaten routes through which much of the world’s oil is shipped.

Crude oil fell on the positive news of U.S. New and Existing Home Sales data. This week, oil traders will want to monitor a batch of US news, most importantly Friday’s U.S. Advance GDP figures. Additionally, the Unemployment Claims, Core Durable Goods Orders, and Pending Home Sales could all potentially have an impact on the price of oil. Better than expected news may signal to investors that demand for crude oil in the US will go up, which could boost prices. 

Over reduction in global demand and a downgraded forecast from the IEA weighed on crude prices.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 23, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 23

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.40%

 

12.50%

 

12.40% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

31.2K

 

30.9K

 

30.7K 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.2%

 

0.5% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.3%

 

0.4%

 

0.7% 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 24 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

44.0

42.7 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

48.0

47.4 

 

09:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

101.6

101.4 

 

09:00

EUR

German Current Assessment 

109.7

110.3 

 

09:00

EUR

German Business Expectations 

94.3

93.2 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

 

-8 

 

15:00

USD

New Home Sales

385K

373K

Oct.26 

07:00

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

5.9 

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.67

1.67 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 24 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 24 09:30 Germany 

Oct 24 14:30 Sweden 

Oct 24 15:30 Italy  

Oct 24 16:30 US 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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