Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled to 85.87 after the EIA inventory showed a huge increase in stocks well above forecast. Crude had been weak before the release as global demand continued to drop with the IEA reducing demand for the balance of 2012.  Earlier today crude improved on confidence in Chinese oil demand, following industrial data that helped support oil prices overnight. The Chinese HSBC Flash PMI came in above forecast and above prior months at 49.1, which is an improvement but still below the 50 needed to show expansion.

Today’s crude oil report took traders by surprise. The report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 375.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 24

 

AUD

 

 

CPI (QoQ) 

1.4%

 

1.1%

 

0.5% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ) 

0.7%

 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

49.10

 

 

 

47.90 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

43.5

 

44.0

 

42.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.7

 

48.0

 

47.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Ifo Business Climate Index 

100.0

 

101.5

 

101.4 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

45.3

 

46.6

 

46.1 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Current Assessment 

107.3

 

109.8

 

110.3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Business Expectations 

93.2

 

93.7

 

93.2 

 

 

ZAR

 

 

South African CPI (MoM) 

0.90%

 

0.60%

 

0.20% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.560%

 

 

 

1.520% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-23

 

-6

 

-8 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

389K

 

385K

 

373K 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Oct. 25

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6% 

-0.4% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.8% 

-1.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

7.1% 

-13.2% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

388K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3255K 

3252K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

2.1% 

-2.6% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 25 00:30 Japan 

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 25 15:30 Italy  

Oct 25 17:00 US 

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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