Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Posted October 24, 2012 15:55 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 25, 2012 Forecast

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil tumbled to 85.87 after the EIA inventory showed a huge increase in stocks well above forecast. Crude had been weak before the release as global demand continued to drop with the IEA reducing demand for the balance of 2012. Earlier today crude improved on confidence in Chinese oil demand, following industrial data that helped support oil prices overnight. The Chinese HSBC Flash PMI came in above forecast and above prior months at 49.1, which is an improvement but still below the 50 needed to show expansion.

Today’s crude oil report took traders by surprise. The report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 5.9 million barrels from the previous week. At 375.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 24, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date	Currency	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 24	AUD	CPI (QoQ)	1.4%	1.1%	0.5%
	AUD	Trimmed Mean CPI (QoQ)	0.7%	0.6%	0.5%
	CNY	Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI	49.10		47.90
	EUR	French Manufacturing PMI	43.5	44.0	42.7
	EUR	German Manufacturing PMI	45.7	48.0	47.4
	EUR	German Ifo Business Climate Index	100.0	101.5	101.4
	EUR	Manufacturing PMI	45.3	46.6	46.1
	EUR	German Current Assessment	107.3	109.8	110.3
	EUR	German Business Expectations	93.2	93.7	93.2
	ZAR	South African CPI (MoM)	0.90%	0.60%	0.20%
	EUR	German 10-Year Bund Auction	1.560%		1.520%
	GBP	CBI Industrial Trends Orders	-23	-6	-8
	USD	New Home Sales	389K	385K	373K

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Oct. 25	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	0.6%	-0.4%
	13:30	USD	Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	0.8%	-1.6%
	13:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM)	7.1%	-13.2%
	13:30	USD	Initial Jobless Claims	370K	388K
	13:30	USD	Continuing Jobless Claims	3255K	3252K
	15:00	USD	Pending Home Sales (MoM)	2.1%	-2.6%

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Oct 25 00:30 Japan

Oct 25 09:10 Sweden

Oct 25 15:30 Italy

Oct 25 17:00 US

Oct 26 09:10 Italy

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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