Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 3, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil remains strong but has lost its push upwards to trade at 92.61 after hitting a high of 92.92.

Crude oil prices continue to remain on a consolidation mode, as the market looks overbought while persistent concerns about the eurozone’s economic stability continue to weigh on market sentiment due to the lack of major economic indicators, expect further consolidation and thin trading conditions across the oil market. Oil watchers were also following events in Iran, whose currency slid between two and six percent in trading on Tuesday, according to different valuations given by money changers in Tehran and an exchange tracking website.

The rial was between 35,500 and 37,000 to the dollar, depending on the source. Iran’s currency had already dramatically slumped by 17 percent on Monday, when a US official said the decline was evidence of the success of the international sanctions over Iran’s nuclear program. Iran is suffering heightened geopolitical tensions over its disputed nuclear program and the effects of Western economic sanctions curbing access to its reduced oil exports.

As there is still an oversupply of oil, prices are unlikely to make lasting gains for the time being.

Speculators said the lift in oil prices following the Federal Reserve’s announcement of a third round of bond buying on Sept. 13 was starting to wane.

Last month, the Fed announced another round of bond buying, known as quantitative easing, and said it would consider providing additional support to the U.S. economy until the labor market showed substantial improvement. A glimpse of the U.S. jobs picture will come Friday, when the US Labor Department releases employment data for September.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data October 2, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Oct. 02

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.2% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

3.25%

 

3.50% 

 

3.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

-0.3% 

 

1.1% 

   

 

 

EUR

 

 

Spanish Unemployment

79.60K

 

 

 

38.20K 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 03 

10:00

EUR

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

Oct. 04

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

Oct. 05

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-0.7% 

0.5% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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