Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis October 4, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 88.81 tumbling over 2.00 today, as rising crude oil stockpiles amidst global economic woes dragged down crude oil. API data released earlier today showed a rise in crude oil stockpiles.

Today’s report showed: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by  0.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 364.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 0.1 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range NYMEX crude oil was hovering near $89 a barrel while Brent crude oil dropped around one per cent.

Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.5 percent t along with decline in China’s manufacturing. Strength in the DX also acted as a supportive factor for the downside in the crude oil prices today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports. 

Economic Data October 3, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Oct. 03

 

AUD

 

 

HIA New Home Sales (MoM) 

-5.3%

 

 

 

-5.6% 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-2.03B

 

-0.70B 

 

-1.53B 

 

 

TRY

 

 

Turkish CPI (MoM) 

1.03%

 

1.10% 

 

0.56% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Services PMI 

52.2

 

53.1 

 

53.7 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.1%

 

-0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Interest Rate Decision 

4.75%

 

0.00% 

 

4.75% 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

162K

 

143K 

 

189K 

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

 

 

53.2 

 

53.7 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Oct. 04

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

359K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K 

3271K 

 Oct. 05

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

-0.5% 

0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

110K 

96K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4 

34.4 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

125K 

103K 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country   

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

 

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