Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 10, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 95.71 unable to fully capitalize on the surge in commodity prices. Reuters first reported last month that the administration was “dusting off” plans that had been shelved in the spring, when prices fell. At that time a source familiar with the talks said officials would be looking closely at whether gasoline prices fell after Labor Day, which was on Monday.

For the moment price remains stubbornly high, after last week’s Hurricane Isaac shut down a swath of Gulf Coast refineries and a deadly blast in Venezuela temporarily crippled production in part of the world’s second-biggest refinery. The EIA report yesterday showed that inventories fell more than expected.

White House officials last held a meeting with outside energy experts in July to discuss the overall energy market issues including China’s thirst for oil. Yesterday’s meeting, which included mid-level officials from the National Security Council, the Treasury and the Department of Defense, was about gathering information and was not expected to result in any immediate decisions but it was focused on the affects of the release of the Strategic Reserves.

Today’s all important jobs report was lackluster, and supported action by the FOMC, which will meet next week to review interest rates and monetary policy, based on Bernanke’s statements in Jackson Hole, their main concern would be the creation of jobs and employment.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 7, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 07

 

AUD

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.56B

 

-0.30B 

 

-0.23B 

  

 

 

CHF

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

2.9%

 

2.9% 

 

2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

2.9%

 

1.5% 

 

-2.4% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

3.2%

 

2.0% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (MoM) 

2.0%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.4%

 

1.2% 

 

-2.4% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-0.8%

 

-2.8% 

 

-3.8% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.2% 

 

-0.4% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Building Permits (MoM) 

-2.3%

 

-2.0% 

 

-2.5% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Employment Change 

34.3K

 

10.0K 

 

-30.4K 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Labor Productivity (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Payrolls 

96K

 

125K 

 

141K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

8.1%

 

8.3% 

 

8.3% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

7.3%

 

7.3% 

 

7.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Average Weekly Hours 

34.4

 

34.5 

 

34.4 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

103K

 

138K 

 

162K 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

  

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

 

 

 

1.3% 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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