Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 11, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil remained strong today, trading at 95.90 off by a few cents on poor eco data from China. (See our chart below). Chinese data weighed on the commodity as eco data showed a continuing slow down in the Chinese economy. China is one of the largest consumers of oil and energy. Crude oil rose too following an initial dip in NYMEX.

However, broadly, prices continued to remain trapped in $94-98 per barrel. Softer demand from China weighed on. Chinese trade balance data indicated that the nation’s imports of crude oil dropped 15.7 per cent in August

Last week the Chinese President announced a new program of infrastructure development to help jump start the internal economy and the PBoC is expected to offer up some additional stimulus which will support crude oil as demand will increase. Also this week traders are expecting the US to introduce a new round of stimulus to help get jobs jumping in the US.

The possible increase in demand is offset by the threats of the release of the strategic reserves as oil price increase can cause inflation but are also a threat to economic growth and recovery.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 10, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 10

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Adjusted Current Account 

0.34T

 

0.39T 

 

0.77T 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.2%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

GDP Price Index (YoY) 

-0.9%

 

-1.1% 

 

-1.1% 

 

00:50

 

JPY

 

 

Bank Lending (YoY) 

0.9%

 

 

 

0.7% 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Trade Balance 

26.66B

 

19.80B 

 

25.10B 

 

02:00

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Exports (YoY) 

2.70%

 

3.00% 

 

1.00% 

 

02:30

 

AUD

 

 

Home Loans (MoM) 

-1.0%

 

0.1% 

 

1.0% 

 

Chinese Economic Data released on September 9, 2012 actual v. forecast ( this is important )

Sep. 09

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

1.8% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese PPI (YoY) 

-3.5%

 

-3.3% 

 

-2.9% 

 

 

 

02:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese CPI (MoM) 

0.6%

 

0.5% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Fixed Asset Investment (YoY) 

20.2%

 

20.4% 

 

20.4% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Industrial Production (YoY) 

8.9%

 

9.1% 

 

9.2% 

 

 

 

06:30

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese Retail Sales (YoY) 

13.2%

 

13.2% 

 

13.1% 

 

 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 11

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

 -22%

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Trade Balance 

 -9.0B

-10.1B 

 

13:30

USD

Trade Balance 

-44.7B 

-42.9B 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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