Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 13, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil climbed to the mid 97 price level today, ahead of this week’s inventory. Prices are trading around 97.32 at this writing and are staying within this range ahead of the FOMC statements tomorrow.

Nymex crude oil prices increased around 0.48 percent taking cues from expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories along with weakness in the DX.

The US Energy Department (EIA) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories report in a few hours showing a decline by 2.6 million barrels for the week ending on 7th September 2012. Traders are not expected to react to the report ahead of the FOMC.

China’s Premier Wen Jiabao stated yesterday that the country is on its way to meet current year’s target for economic growth and if needed, the government could use of a 100 bn Yuan ($15.8 bn) fiscal stability fund to improve growth.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Events forecast vs. actual September 12, 2012

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 12

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Unemployment Rate 

3.1%

 

3.2% 

 

3.1% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tertiary Industry Activity Index (MoM) 

-0.8%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.2% 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Westpac Consumer Sentiment 

1.60%

 

 

 

-2.50% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French CPI (MoM) 

0.7%

 

0.5% 

 

-0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.1%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.0% 

 

2.0% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Average Earnings Index +Bonus 

1.5%

 

1.6% 

 

1.8% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Claimant Count Change 

-15.0K

 

0.5K 

 

-13.6K 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.6%

 

-0.1% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Import Price Index (MoM) 

0.7%

 

1.4% 

 

-0.7% 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events (today is the FOMC statement)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

 

09:00

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

13:30

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

 

 

 

17:30

 

USD

 

 

FOMC Statement 

 

 

 

 

 

 

19:00

 

USD

 

 

Federal Budget Balance 

-155.0B 

 

-69.6B 

 

 

 

19:15

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

  

Government Bond Auctions

Date and Country

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

Sep 13 00:30 Japan 

Sep 13 09:10 Italy  

Sep 13 09:30 UK 

Sep 13 15:00 US 

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