Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 14, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil climbed today ahead of the FOMC decision, on hopes of Fed stimulus. Also on the back of the middle east tensions in Libya. Yesterday, the US Ambassador was killed in an attack on the Embassy. Since the revolution Libya has increased its production of oil well beyond expectations becoming one of the main suppliers in the Middle East. Possible violence, terrorism or conflict could threaten that pipeline and interfere with global demands. Oil pushed above the 98.00 price level today and is trading at this writing at 98.25

The International Energy Agency said crude oil imports from Iran have increased slightly despite Western sanctions imposed on the country.

The IEA in its monthly market report stated that crude oil imports from Iran increased slightly in August to 1.1 million barrels per day, up from less than 1 million bpd mark in July.

Press TV, Iran’s state-funded broadcaster, outlines of list of countries that have increased crude oil imports from Iran. Among those listed, Turkey led the way with an August increase of 50,000 barrels to 200,000 bpd of Iranian crude.

The U.S. and European governments targeted the Iranian energy sector with sanctions out of concern revenue generated from oil could help fund a nuclear weapons program. Tehran says the program is for peaceful purposes.

Tehran this week announced that that private companies delivered oil to the foreign market for the first time Sunday. An agreement with unspecified entities allows private companies to export about 20 percent of the country’s total oil deliveries designated for the international market.

OPEC, in its August report, reported average overall member state production at 31.2 million barrels of oil per day, down 160,000 bpd in part on decreases from Iran, Saudi Arabia, Libya and Angola.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 13, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

 

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 13

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Interest Rate Decision 

3.00%

 

2.75% 

 

3.00% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

-0.4% 

 

-0.3% 

 

 

 

 

CHF

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.00%

 

0.00% 

 

0.00% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Monthly Report 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (MoM) 

 

 

0.2% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (MoM) 

 

 

1.1% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

 

 

370K 

 

365K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

 

 

3318K 

 

3322K 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

PPI (YoY) 

 

 

1.4% 

 

0.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core PPI (YoY) 

 

 

2.6% 

 

2.5% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

 

 

0.25% 

 

0.25% 

   

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Sep. 14

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.6% 

2.6% 

 

10:00

EUR

Employment Change (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

10:00

EUR

Core CPI (YoY) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Core CPI (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.6% 

0.8% 

 

13:30

USD

CPI (MoM) 

0.5% 

0.0% 

 

13:30

USD

Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.7% 

0.8% 

 

14:15

USD

Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.6% 

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.1 

74.3 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 14 10:00 Belgium

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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