Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 19, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to decline as more rumors surface regarding a release from the Strategic Reserves. Yesterday a weak manufacturing report added to the weakness in oil. Crude oil prices fell nearly $3 per barrel in a wild session that saw Brent plunge more than $5 per barrel in a wave of late, high-volume selling before paring losses as markets sought an explanation for the sudden crash.  Crude is trading at 96.38

US exempted Japan and EU countries from Iranian oil sanctions. The State Department granted Japan and 10-European Union countries exemptions from the international sanctions on Iranian oil.

Continued tensions in the Middle East are pushing crude oil prices and offsetting decline in demand and high production.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 18, 2012 actual v. forecast

Sep. 18

 

AUD

 

 

Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes 

       

 

 

CNY

 

 

China House Prices (MoM) 

-1.40%

   

-1.50%

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Core CPI (YoY) 

2.1%

 

2.2%

 

2.3%

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.5%

 

2.5%

 

2.6%

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

RPI (YoY) 

2.9%

 

3.1%

 

3.2%

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

DCLG House Price Index (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.8%

 

2.3%

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.5%

 

0.1%

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

German ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-18.2

 

-19.0

 

-25.5

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

ZEW Economic Sentiment 

-3.8

 

-16.5

 

-21.2

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Current Account 

-117.4B

 

-125.5B

 

-133.6B

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 19 

13:30

USD

Building Permits 

0.800M 

0.811M 

 

13:30

USD

Housing Starts 

0.765M 

0.746M 

 

15:00

USD

Existing Home Sales 

4.56M 

4.47M 

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 19 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 19 09:30 Germany 

Sep 19 09:30 Portugal 

Sep 19 10:00 Norway 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy

 

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