Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 20, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil continues to decline, even with additional stimulus offered by the Bank of Japan today. In earlier trading crude oil rose after the announcement only to decline again. Falling global production and manufacturing continues to plague the economies around the world, reducing the demand for oil and other energy products. Crude is trading at 93.94 down 1.68 and continuing to fall.

Tensions in the Middle East have returned to their norm easing prices.

But pressure from the Obama Administration and threats of release of strategic reserves continue to force prices downward.

Today’s EIA inventory showed an unexpected increase in stocks:

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve)  increased by  8.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 367.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 19, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 19

 

JPY

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.10%

 

0.10% 

 

0.10% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Building Permits 

0.803M

 

0.796M 

 

0.811M 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Housing Starts 

0.750M

 

0.765M 

 

0.733M 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 20 

07:58

EUR

French Manufacturing PMI 

46.4 

46.0 

 

08:28

EUR

German Manufacturing PMI 

45.3 

44.7 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.4% 

0.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7% 

2.8% 

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-15 

-21 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 20 08:30 Spain 

Sep 20 08:50 France 

Sep 20 09:30 UK 

Sep 20 09:50 France 

Sep 20 15:00 US 

Sep 20 17:00 US 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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