Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 21, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil ended the day close to its opening after tumbling for the first three days of the week and continuing to be weak today. Crude is trading at 92.22

Higher than expected inventories along with lower growth forecasts and poor data out of Japan and China helped pressure oil prices.

Middle East tensions settled back to their norm and there was little weather problems. Crude oil eased, with the Brent falling below $108 a barrel after the top producer Saudi Arabia pledged to keep global oil prices low. Rumors of a release of the STR kept traders away from oil as the USD climbed today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 20, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 20

 

JPY

 

 

Trade Balance 

-0.47T

 

-0.37T 

 

-0.37T 

   

 

 

CNY

 

 

Chinese HSBC Manufacturing PMI 

47.80

 

 

 

47.60 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

French Manufacturing PMI 

42.6

 

46.4 

 

46.0 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Manufacturing PMI 

47.3

 

45.3 

 

44.7 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Manufacturing PMI 

46.0

 

45.4 

 

45.1 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.4% 

 

0.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

2.7%

 

2.7% 

 

2.3% 

   

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Industrial Trends Orders 

-8

 

-15 

 

-21 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

382K

 

375K 

 

385K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3272K

 

3300K 

 

3304K 

   

 

 

USD

 

 

Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index 

-1.9

 

-4.0 

 

-7.1 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

There are no top tier eco data releases due in Europe or the US on the 21st.

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 21 15:30 Italy  

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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