Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 26, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading up at 92.78 (1200GMT) following in the positive market sentiment. The US, UK, France and Germany moved to apply more restrictions and sanctions on Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

Crude futures had fallen Monday on concerns about the eurozone debt crisis and weakening global economic growth despite a recent round of central bank stimulus, traders said.

The West claims that major oil exporter Iran is using its nuclear program to secretly develop a bomb, but the Islamic republic says it is purely for civilian purposes.

Crude oil gains are limited by high inventories and threats from the Obama Administration of release of strategic reserves.

However, expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 21st September 2012. 

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 25

 

AUD

 

 

RBA Financial Stability Review 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

GfK German Consumer Climate 

5.9

 

5.9 

 

5.9 

 

 

 

 

PLN

 

 

Polish Unemployment Rate 

12.40%

 

12.30% 

 

12.30% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BBA Mortgage Approvals 

30.5K

 

28.6K 

 

28.8K 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 26

01:00

EUR

German CPI (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.4%

 

01:00

EUR

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

2.1%

 

11:00

GBP

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

5

-3

Sep. 27 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

6.8%

 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K

9K

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.4B

-11.2B

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

-0.5%

 Sep. 28 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.2%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.55

1.57

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 26 09:10 Italy  

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 26 09:00 Germany 

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 26 17:00 US 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US

 

 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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