Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 26, 2012 Forecast

Posted September 25, 2012 12:48 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading up at 92.78 (1200GMT) following in the positive market sentiment. The US, UK, France and Germany moved to apply more restrictions and sanctions on Iran over its controversial nuclear program.

Crude futures had fallen Monday on concerns about the eurozone debt crisis and weakening global economic growth despite a recent round of central bank stimulus, traders said.

The West claims that major oil exporter Iran is using its nuclear program to secretly develop a bomb, but the Islamic republic says it is purely for civilian purposes.

Crude oil gains are limited by high inventories and threats from the Obama Administration of release of strategic reserves.

However, expectations of rise in US crude oil inventories coupled with strength in the DX capped sharp gains in the prices. The American Petroleum Institute (API) is scheduled to release its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories are expected to increase by 2.0 million barrels for the week ending on 21st September 2012.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 25, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 25

AUD

RBA Financial Stability Review

EUR

GfK German Consumer Climate

5.9

5.9

PLN

Polish Unemployment Rate

12.40%

12.30%

GBP

BBA Mortgage Approvals

30.5K

28.6K

28.8K

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 26	01:00	EUR	German CPI (MoM)	-0.1%	0.4%
	01:00	EUR	German CPI (YoY)	2.0%	2.1%
	11:00	GBP	CBI Distributive Trades Survey	5	-3
Sep. 27	08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Rate	6.8%	6.8%
	08:55	EUR	German Unemployment Change	10K	9K
	09:30	GBP	Current Account	-12.4B	-11.2B
	09:30	GBP	GDP (QoQ)	-0.5%	-0.5%
	09:30	GBP	GDP (YoY)	-0.5%	-0.5%
Sep. 28	07:45	EUR	French Consumer Spending (MoM)	-0.2%	0.1%
	08:00	CHF	KOF Leading Indicators	1.55	1.57

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 26 09:10 Italy

Sep 26 09:10 Sweden

Sep 26 09:00 Germany

Sep 26 14:30 Sweden

Sep 26 17:00 US

Sep 27 00:30 Japan

Sep 27 09:10 Italy

Sep 27 17:00 US

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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