Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 27, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 89.38 tumbling again today on worries over Spain, Greece and the ECB. Growth warning from the IMF and a watch warning on the Asian Pacific region all worried investors today. Markets were also disappointed with the under forecast print of US New Home Sales.

Overall the unresolved ongoing issues in Spain and Greece were the biggest worry. Even hurricanes and Iran were not enough to support prices.

However, persistent geopolitical concerns emanating from the Middle East are proving some kind of support to the energy complex. In the latest, U.S has tightened sanctions on Iran’s oil company, linking it to the country’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. The move will allow apply new sanctions on foreign banks dealing with the company. In addition, President Obama has stated to the UN General assembly that the Iranians do not have unlimited time to fully open up their nuclear program to outside inspectors. 

Saudi Arabia continues to push prices down and threatens to increase production to hold prices as the Obama Administration continues to warning markets of possible releases from the strategic reserves.

The EIA just released the weekly inventory which showed a decrease in inventory by over 2m barrels after a surge in stocks last week. The report stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 2.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 365.2 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 26, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

Sep. 26

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Unemployment Rate 

3.00%

 

3.00% 

 

3.10% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.520%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

GBP

 

 

CBI Distributive Trades Survey 

6

 

 

-3 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.0% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German CPI (YoY) 

2.0%

 

2.0% 

 

2.1% 

 

 

USD

 

 

New Home Sales 

373K

 

380K 

 

372K 

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 27 

08:55

EUR

German Unemployment Change 

10K 

9K 

 

09:30

GBP

Business Investment (QoQ) 

-1.5% 

-1.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Current Account 

-12.4B 

-11.2B 

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.5% 

-0.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5% 

-0.5% 

 

13:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

0.3% 

-0.6% 

 

13:30

USD

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-5.0% 

4.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

378K 

382K 

 

13:30

USD

GDP (QoQ) 

1.7% 

1.7% 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3285K 

3272K 

 

15:00

USD

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-0.7% 

2.4% 

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Sep 27 00:30 Japan 

Sep 27 09:10 Italy  

Sep 27 17:00 US 

 

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