Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 28, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil climbed to 91.87 after falling below 90.00 yesterday. Crude oil prices recovered some of the lost ground from the previous session on rising Euro and expectation of liquidity injection from the second largest consumer China to assist flagging growth in the country. NYMEX crude oil was off its eight week low it hit in the previous session while, Brent crude oil steadied above $110 a barrel.

Crude is expected to continue to decline, with lackluster eco data from the US, durable goods and pending home sales both printed on the negative sides today, weighing on the USD and commodities.

Global growth continues to slow, which will keep crude lower.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

 

Economic Data September 27, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 27

 

DKK

 

 

Danish Unemployment Rate 

4.70%

 

4.70% 

 

4.70% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Rate 

6.8%

 

6.8% 

 

6.8% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Unemployment Change 

9K

 

10K 

 

11K 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Business Investment (QoQ) 

0.9%

 

-1.5% 

 

-1.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Current Account 

-20.8B

 

-12.4B 

 

-15.4B 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.4%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

GDP (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.5% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Italian 10-Year BTP Auction 

5.24%

 

 

 

5.82% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-1.6%

 

0.3% 

 

-1.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Durable Goods Orders (MoM) 

-13.2%

 

-5.0% 

 

3.3% 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

359K

 

378K 

 

385K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

1.3%

 

1.7% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3271K

 

3285K 

 

3275K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Pending Home Sales (MoM) 

-2.6%

 

-0.7% 

 

2.6% 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 28

06:30

EUR

French GDP (QoQ) 

0.0%

0.0%

 

07:45

EUR

French Consumer Spending (MoM) 

-0.1%

0.1%

 

08:00

CHF

KOF Leading Indicators 

1.57

1.57

 

10:00

EUR

CPI (YoY) 

2.4%

2.6%

 

13:30

USD

Core PCE Price Index (MoM) 

0.1%

0.0%

 

13:30

USD

Personal Spending (MoM) 

0.5%

0.4%

 

14:45

USD

Chicago PMI 

52.9

53.0

 

14:55

USD

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

78.9

79.2

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country 

Oct 01 10:00 Norway 

Oct 02 09:15 Austria 

Oct 02 09:30 Belgium 

Oct 02 09:30 UK 

Oct 02 14:30 UK 

Oct 03 09:10 Sweden 

Oct 03 10:00 Norway 

Oct 04 08:30 Spain 

Oct 04 08:50 France 

Oct 04 15:00 US 

Oct 05 15:30 Italy 

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About:FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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