Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 3, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 95.66 almost unchanged since Mr. Bernanke. Traders are hoping for stimulus from the ECB and the FOMC, and possibly China, to jump starts the global economy, which will help increase the demand for oil.

Contraction in Japan’s industrial production reported today early morning and lower manufacturing activities concern in China is adding pressure on crude. The third energy consumer Japan’s vehicle production has increased by 16.7% in the last month, in a lower rate from prior month of 20% rate. As per National Hurricane Center, tropical storm Isaac has turned as depression inland, which eased the concern of supply disturbances. The U.S. Treasury Department, International Energy Agency, a 28-member group of oil consuming countries are prepared to call upon a meet to take appropriate action to ensure that the market is fully and timely supplied.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data August 31, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Aug. 31

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean Industrial Production (YoY) 

0.3%

 

0.5% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

JPY

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

4.3%

 

4.3% 

 

4.3% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Tokyo Core CPI (YoY) 

-0.5%

 

-0.6% 

 

-0.6% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

Industrial Production (MoM) 

-1.2%

 

1.7% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

INR

 

 

Indian GDP (YoY) 

5.5%

 

5.3% 

 

5.3% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Nationwide HPI (MoM) 

1.3%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.8% 

   

 

 

NOK

 

 

Norwegian Core Retail Sales (MoM) 

0.20%

 

0.50% 

 

-1.40% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

CPI (YoY) 

2.6%

 

2.5% 

 

2.4% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

11.3%

 

11.3% 

 

11.3% 

   

 

 

CAD

 

 

GDP (MoM) 

0.2%

 

0.1% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Chicago PMI 

53.0 

 

53.5 

 

53.7 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Michigan Consumer Sentiment 

74.3 

 

73.6 

 

73.6 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and US ( no CAD events)

Date

Time

 

Currency

 

 

Event

 

 

Previous

 

 

Sep 03 

08:15

 

CHF

 

 

Retail Sales (YoY) 

 

 

3.7% 

 

 

 

08:30

 

CHF

 

 

SVME PMI 

 

 

48.6 

 

 

Government Bond Auction

Date  Time  Country 

Sep 03  09:10  Norway  Bond auction

Sep 03  10:00  Belgium  OLO auction

Sep 04  00:30  Japan  Auctions 10Y JGBs

Sep 04  09:15  Austria  Bond auction

Sep 04  09:30  Belgium  Auctions Dec 2012 (3M) & Feb 2013 (6M) T-bills

Sep 04  14:30  UK  Details 0.75% 2034 I/L Gilt & 1.75% Sep 2022 Gilt on Sep

Sep 05  09:10  Sweden  Nominal bond auction

Sep 05  09:30  Germany  Eur 5.0bn Sep 2022 Bund auction

Sep 05  09:30  UK  4.5% 2042 Gilt auction

Sep 06  00:30  Japan  Auctions 30Y JGBs

Sep 06  08:30  Spain  Bono auction

Sep 06  08:50  France  OAT auction

Sep 06  09:10  Sweden  I/L bond auction

Sep 06  15:00  US  Announces 3Y Notes on Sep 11, 10Y Notes on Sep 12 &

Sep 07  15:30  Italy

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)
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