Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 6, 2012 Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil is trading at 94.63 declining for the second day this week on global growth worries, lack of demand and over supply, even with the hopes of stimulus, there may be too much oil even on increased production. Poor EU eco data weighed on the commodity today

Nymex crude oil prices declined 0.34 percent today taking cues from decline in US manufacturing coupled with strength in the DX. However, expectations of decline in US crude oil inventories prevented further fall in the prices.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) released its weekly inventories today and US crude oil inventories showing a decline by 5.5 million barrels for the week ending on 31st August 2012.

Spanish Services Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) increased by 0.3 points to 44-mark in August as against a rise of 43.7-level in July. Italian Services PMI gained by 1 point to 44-level in last month from earlier rise of 43-mark in July. European Final Services PMI declined by 0.3 points to 47.2-mark in August as compared to rise of 47.5-level a month ago. European Retail Sales declined by 0.2 percent in July with respect to rise of 0.1 percent in prior month

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 5, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 05

 

AUD

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

0.6%

 

0.7% 

 

1.4% 

   

 

 

CHF

 

 

CPI (MoM) 

0.0%

 

0.1% 

 

-0.5% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Retail Sales (MoM) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

0.1% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German 10-Year Bund Auction 

1.420%

 

 

 

1.420% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Nonfarm Productivity (QoQ) 

2.2%

 

1.8% 

 

1.6% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Unit Labor Costs (QoQ) 

1.5%

 

1.5% 

 

1.7% 

 

 

 

 

CAD

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

1.00%

 

1.00% 

 

1.00% 

   

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

 Sep. 06

10:00

EUR

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2% 

-0.2% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.2% 

-1.7% 

 

12:00

GBP

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50% 

0.50% 

 

12:00

GBP

BOE QE Total 

375B 

375B 

 

12:45

EUR

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75% 

0.75% 

 

13:15

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

140K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Initial Jobless Claims 

370K 

374K 

 

13:30

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3315K 

3316K 

 

15:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

52.5 

52.6 

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 06 00:30 Japan 

Sep 06 08:30 Spain 

Sep 06 08:50 France 

Sep 06 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 06 15:00 US 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

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