Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast

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Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained this afternoon after the EIA inventory release to trade at 97.26. Today’s inventory decline surprised the markets declining more than expected, except the decline can be accounted for by lower production due to the closure of a lot of facilities in the Gulf of Mexico during the Hurricane Isaac threat.

Today’s release stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

This combined with the announcement of the ECB bond buying program and a rise in hopes for stimulus in the US, which adds to the demand for oil, gave crude a leg up today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

 

Currency

 

 

Event

Actual

 

Forecast

 

Previous

 

 

Sep. 06

 

KRW

 

 

South Korean GDP (QoQ) 

0.3%

 

0.4% 

 

0.4% 

 

 

 

 

AUD

 

 

Employment Change 

-8.8K

 

5.0K 

 

11.7K 

  

 

 

AUD

 

 

Unemployment Rate 

5.1%

 

5.3% 

 

5.2% 

 

 

 

 

JPY

 

 

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

Halifax House Price Index (MoM) 

-0.4%

 

0.3% 

 

-0.7% 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

GDP (QoQ) 

-0.2%

 

-0.2% 

 

-0.2% 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

German Factory Orders (MoM) 

0.5%

 

0.2% 

 

-1.6% 

  

 

 

GBP

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.50%

 

0.50% 

 

0.50% 

 

 

 

 

GBP

 

 

BOE QE Total 

375B

 

375B 

 

375B 

 

 

 

 

EUR

 

 

Interest Rate Decision 

0.75%

 

0.75% 

 

0.75% 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change 

201K

 

140K 

 

173K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

Initial Jobless Claims 

365K

 

370K 

 

377K 

  

 

 

EUR

 

 

ECB Press Conference 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

USD

 

 

Continuing Jobless Claims 

3322K

 

3315K 

 

3328K 

  

 

 

USD

 

 

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index 

53.7

 

52.5 

 

52.6 

  

 

WEEKLY

  • This Week in Petroleum
    Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
    Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
  • Weekly Petroleum Status Report
    Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

 

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 07

00:01

GBP

RICS House Price Balance 

-24% 

-24% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (MoM) 

1.5% 

-2.5% 

 

09:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production (MoM) 

2.0% 

-2.9% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (MoM) 

1.7% 

1.3% 

 

09:30

GBP

PPI Input (YoY) 

1.2% 

-2.4% 

 

09:30

GBP

Industrial Production (YoY) 

-2.8% 

-4.3% 

 

11:00

EUR

German Industrial Production (MoM) 

0.2% 

-0.9% 

 

13:30

USD

Average Hourly Earnings (MoM) 

0.2% 

0.1% 

 

13:30

USD

Nonfarm Payrolls 

124K 

163K 

 

13:30

USD

Average Weekly Hours 

34.5 

34.5 

 

13:30

USD

Private Nonfarm Payrolls 

142K 

172K 

Government Bond Auction

 Date    Time   Country 

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany 

Sep 10 15:30 Italy  

Sep 11 00:30 Japan 

Sep 11 08:30 Holland 

Sep 11 09:10 Greece 

Sep 11 09:30 UK 

Sep 11 14:30 UK 

Sep 11 17:00 US 

Sep 12 09:10 Italy  

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden 

Sep 12 09:30 Germany 

Sep 12 09:30   Swiss 

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden 

Sep 12 17:00 US 

 

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