Crude Oil Fundamental Analysis September 7, 2012, Forecast

Posted September 06, 2012 15:48 (GMT) | By FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman | Print | Font Size
Add a comment

Category:

Fundamental Reports

Get Forex buy/sell signals directly to your email and by SMS.
To learn more click here

Analysis and Recommendations:

Crude Oil gained this afternoon after the EIA inventory release to trade at 97.26. Today’s inventory decline surprised the markets declining more than expected, except the decline can be accounted for by lower production due to the closure of a lot of facilities in the Gulf of Mexico during the Hurricane Isaac threat.

Today’s release stated: U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 357.1 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are near the upper limit of the average range for this time of year.

This combined with the announcement of the ECB bond buying program and a rise in hopes for stimulus in the US, which adds to the demand for oil, gave crude a leg up today.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more up to the data analysis and information in our weekly reports.

Economic Data September 6, 2012 actual v. forecast

Date

Currency

Event

Actual

Forecast

Previous

Sep. 06

KRW

South Korean GDP (QoQ)

0.3%

0.4%

AUD

Employment Change

-8.8K

5.0K

11.7K

AUD

Unemployment Rate

5.1%

5.3%

5.2%

JPY

BoJ Governor Shirakawa Speaks

GBP

Halifax House Price Index (MoM)

-0.4%

0.3%

-0.7%

EUR

GDP (QoQ)

-0.2%

-0.2%

EUR

German Factory Orders (MoM)

0.5%

0.2%

-1.6%

GBP

Interest Rate Decision

0.50%

0.50%

GBP

BOE QE Total

375B

375B

EUR

Interest Rate Decision

0.75%

0.75%

USD

ADP Nonfarm Employment Change

201K

140K

173K

USD

Initial Jobless Claims

365K

370K

377K

EUR

ECB Press Conference

USD

Continuing Jobless Claims

3322K

3315K

3328K

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing Index

53.7

52.5

52.6

WEEKLY

This Week in Petroleum
Release Schedule: Wednesday @ 1:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Release Schedule: Monday between 4:00 and 5:00 p.m. EST (schedule)
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Release Schedule: The wpsrsummary.pdf, overview.pdf, and Tables 1-14 in CSV and XLS formats, are released to the Web site after 10:30 a.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. All other PDF and HTML files are released to the Web site after 1:00 p.m. (Eastern Time) on Wednesday. Appendix D is produced during the winter heating season, which extends from October through March of each year. For some weeks which include holidays, releases are delayed by one day. (schedule)

Upcoming Economic Events that affect the CHF, EUR, GBP and USD

Date	Time	Currency	Event	Forecast	Previous
Sep. 07	00:01	GBP	RICS House Price Balance	-24%	-24%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (MoM)	1.5%	-2.5%
	09:30	GBP	Manufacturing Production (MoM)	2.0%	-2.9%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (MoM)	1.7%	1.3%
	09:30	GBP	PPI Input (YoY)	1.2%	-2.4%
	09:30	GBP	Industrial Production (YoY)	-2.8%	-4.3%
	11:00	EUR	German Industrial Production (MoM)	0.2%	-0.9%
	13:30	USD	Average Hourly Earnings (MoM)	0.2%	0.1%
	13:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls	124K	163K
	13:30	USD	Average Weekly Hours	34.5	34.5
	13:30	USD	Private Nonfarm Payrolls	142K	172K

Government Bond Auction

Date Time Country

Sep 07 15:30 Italy

Sep 10 09:30 Germany

Sep 10 15:30 Italy

Sep 11 00:30 Japan

Sep 11 08:30 Holland

Sep 11 09:10 Greece

Sep 11 09:30 UK

Sep 11 14:30 UK

Sep 11 17:00 US

Sep 12 09:10 Italy

Sep 12 09:10 Sweden

Sep 12 09:30 Germany

Sep 12 09:30 Swiss

Sep 12 14:30 Sweden

Sep 12 17:00 US

Want to read more articles like this one?

Enter your e-mail address and read FX Empire content directly from your inbox.

We value your privacy. Your e-mail address will not be shared.

About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

View all of FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman's Articles