Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

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Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast April 2013

Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil closed close to the monthly high at 97.20 climbing over 3.00 last week. U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 14.9 million barrels per day during the week ending March 22, 2013, 364 thousand barrels per day above the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 85.7 percent of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging just less than 8.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 4.2 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged about 8.2 million barrels per day last week; up by 841 thousand barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports have averaged 7.6 million barrels per day, about 1.2 million barrels per day below the same four-week period last year.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 3.3 million barrels from the previous week. At 385.9 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are well above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 1.9 million barrels last week.

WTI was $93.41 per barrel on March 22, 2013, $0.08 below last week’s price and $13.02 under a year ago. The spot price for conventional gasoline in the New York Harbor was $2.877 per gallon, $0.069 below last week’s price and $0.399 less than last year.

Max: 97.35

Minimum: 89.38

Difference: 7.97

Average: 93.01

Rev. %: 5.80

Slowly, we’ve seen a price rise in West Texas Intermediate crude, now approaching $100 a barrel. This rally has come while the global benchmark for crude prices, Brent crude, hasn’t really moved much at all, remaining fairly firm at around $109.  A flat price for global crude with a rising price for US crude has been just the opposite of what the fundamentals seem to say, with a dropping supply profile for Brent crudes and a continuing surplus of domestic crude in Cushing, Oklahoma.  

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Central Bank – Fed Reserve

Date of next meeting or last meeting: May 01, 2013

Current Rate: 0.00 – 0.25%

crude oil BNS April

WEEKLY RELEASES

This Week in Petroleum
Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update
Weekly Petroleum Status Report
Heating Oil & Propane Update 
Weekly Coal Production
Weekly NYMEX Coal Futures
Coal News & Markets
Natural Gas Weekly Update
Weekly Natural Gas Storage Report

Economic events for the month of April affecting EUR, CHF, GBP and USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Apr 1

9:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

54.2

54.2

Apr 2

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing PMI

48.9

47.9

Apr 3

3:30

GBP

Construction PMI

47.7

46.8

 

7:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

203K

198K

 

9:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

55.9

56.0

Apr 4

3:30

GBP

Services PMI

51.4

51.8

 

6:00

GBP

Asset Purchase Facility

375B

375B

   

GBP

Official Bank Rate

0.50%

0.50%

 

6:45

EUR

Minimum Bid Rate

0.75%

0.75%

   

USD

Unemployment Claims

354K

357K

Apr 5

2:00

CHF

Foreign Currency Reserves

 

430.0B

 

7:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

201K

236K

   

USD

Trade Balance

-44.6B

-44.4B

Apr 8

20:30

CNY

CPI y/y

 

3.2%

Apr 9

2:15

CHF

CPI m/m

 

0.3%

 

3:30

GBP

Manufacturing Production m/m

 

-1.5%

Apr 12

7:30

USD

Core Retail Sales m/m

 

1.0%

   

USD

PPI m/m

 

0.7%

   

USD

Retail Sales m/m

 

1.1%

 

8:55

USD

Prelim UoM Consumer Sentiment

 

78.6

Apr 16

3:30

GBP

CPI y/y

   
 

7:30

USD

Building Permits

   
   

USD

Core CPI m/m

   

Apr 17

3:30

GBP

Claimant Count Change

   
 

4:00

EUR

German ZEW Economic Sentiment

   

Apr 18

3:30

GBP

Retail Sales m/m

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   
 

9:00

USD

Philly Fed Manufacturing Index

   

Apr 22

9:00

USD

Existing Home Sales

   
 

20:45

CNY

HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI

   

Apr 23

2:00

EUR

French Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

2:30

EUR

German Flash Manufacturing PMI

   
 

9:00

USD

New Home Sales

   

Apr 24

3:00

EUR

German Ifo Business Climate

   
 

7:30

USD

Core Durable Goods Orders m/m

   

Apr 25

3:30

GBP

Prelim GDP q/q

   
 

7:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

   

Apr 26

7:30

USD

Advance GDP q/q

 

0.4%

Apr 29

9:00

USD

Pending Home Sales m/m

   

Apr 30

9:00

USD

CB Consumer Confidence

   

 

  

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

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