Crude Oil Monthly Fundamental Forecast August 2012

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Outlook and Recommendation

Crude Oil ended the month at 87.75 supported by tensions in Iran and Syria along with a recent terrorist act in Bulgaria that the Israeli’s are blaming on the Iranians. This month the oil embargo went into full effect without any major problems.

Highest: 93.25

Lowest: 82.12

Difference: 11.13

Average: 87.84

Change %: 5.28

As eco data continues to report negative growth and falling manufacturing especially in China, the demand on crude continues to decline.

At the end of the month with hopes of stimulus from the FOMC and the ECB prices were well supported.

FxEmpire provides in-depth analysis for each currency and commodity we review. Fundamental analysis is provided in three components. We provide a detailed monthly analysis and forecast at the beginning of each month. Then we provide more recent analysis and information in our weekly reports and we provide daily updates and outlooks.

Crude Oil Inventory (EIA)

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.5 million barrels from the previous week. At 373.6 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are above the upper limit of the average range for this time of year. Total motor gasoline inventories decreased by 2.2 million barrels last week and are in the lower half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are below the lower limit of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.4 million barrels last week and are  near the  upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 7.2 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period have averaged 18.8 million barrels per day, down by 0.1 percent compared to the similar period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied has averaged nearly 8.8 million barrels per day, down by 3.4 percent from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied has averaged about 3.5 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, down by 2.4 percent from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is 4.1 percent lower over the last four weeks compared to the same four-week period last year.

Economic events for the month of August affecting USD

Date

Time

Currency

Event 

Forecast

Previous

Aug 1

12:15

USD

ADP Non-Farm Employment Change

122K

176K

 

14:00

USD

ISM Manufacturing PMI

50.4

49.7

 

18:15

USD

FOMC Statement

   

Aug 2

12:30

USD

Unemployment Claims

375K

353K

Aug 3

12:30

USD

Non-Farm Employment Change

101K

80K

 

12:30

USD

Unemployment Rate

8.2%

8.2%

 

14:00

USD

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

52.2

52.1

 

August Major Economic Events

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About: FX Empire Analyst - Barry Norman

Barry produces a private Daily Market Review newsletter that is distributed around the globe to over 25,000 subscribers and recently published a book on Options Trading that is available from amazon.com

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